Reflecting on the chaos from last year when Damian Lillard requested a trade, we might see a similar upheaval today. As we look ahead to 6 PM Eastern on the 30th, a lot is unfolding this Sunday. Saturday was filled with developments, especially concerning Paul George.
I want to discuss the Brooklyn and Knicks trade, Richaun Holmes restructuring his contract, and the Murray trade.
Pelicans Acquire Dejounte Murray From the Atlanta Hawks
Let’s start with the Murray trade. Due to Murray’s extension, I mentioned that the deal must be completed before July 1st. However, the finalization won’t occur until July 6th. Focusing on the 2024-2025 and 2023-2024 seasons, I know New Orleans is just $280,000 below the luxury tax. When a trade bonus functions as actual salary post-season, trading a $30 million player for a $25 million player doesn’t affect the luxury tax bottom line.
A trade bonus impacts the luxury tax if included in a player’s contract. For instance, a $12 million trade bonus spread over three or four years would add $3 million to $4 million annually to the Pelicans’ payroll.
By finalizing deals after July 1st, New Orleans can avoid paying the luxury tax, as the new fiscal year starts then. They might need to add a player like Matt Ryan or consider a sign-and-trade, as they’re short by about $2.1 to $2.2 million.
If New Orleans wants to avoid the luxury tax and save $12 million, they should delay the deal until July 6th, after the moratorium. We initially thought the Murray trade would be completed sooner, as his extension raises his salary from about $18 million to $27 million.
There’s a significant gap, around $7.5 million, to balance the finances between incoming and outgoing assets. The trade between Brooklyn and New York isn’t official yet, but it’s expected to finalize on July 6th.
Mikal Bridges Trade Could Expand
I anticipate this deal will expand, with New York potentially adding a player through a roster move or a sign-and-trade. The Knicks won’t hard cap themselves at the first apron but will opt for the second apron at $189.5 million, providing an additional $11 million in flexibility.
With roughly $20 million available to complete their roster, if the Knicks trade Mitchell Robinson, they might aim to bring back Isaiah Hartenstein, who will attract offers once free agency opens. Orlando is a potential suitor for him.
With approximately $49 million in cap space, Orlando could target players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and others. They declined Mo Wagner’s option, making him valuable in the market, along with Joe Ingles. Keep an eye on Orlando for these solid contributors, following top-tier players like LeBron and Paul George.
Watch for the Brooklyn and New York trade to expand, with New York adding another player. As for LeBron, I’ve previously discussed the possibility of him taking a discount, and it’s an intriguing topic to revisit.
LeBron James’ Options After Opting Out
Dave McMenamin mentioned yesterday that LeBron James might consider taking a discount if it involves Klay Thompson, James Harden, and Jonas Valanciunas. Including Valanciunas was surprising, and it seemed like a no-brainer deal.
For this to work, LeBron would sign around $30 million on a one-year deal, allowing the team to utilize his Bird rights next year for a max contract. This would mean a $20 million pay cut initially. Max Christie might be part of the deal in this scenario, and D’Angelo Russell’s situation could also influence the dynamics if he’s traded.
The $30 million figure is crucial for securing the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, set at $12.9 million. As for Klay Thompson, it’s uncertain if this would be enough, though Dallas seems well-positioned to pursue him, possibly using their $16.1 million trade exception from the Tim Hardaway Jr. trade. Dallas has another trade exception they can use, and they might keep their biannual exception. Klay Thompson might go there if he gets a better deal in Dallas. This would require a sign-and-trade with Golden State, which would hard cap the Mavericks. It’s unlikely they can keep both Klay Thompson and Derrick Jones unless they shed salary.
The challenge lies in managing the cap. They could sign Jones with their non-taxpayer mid-level exception and acquire Thompson with their trade exception, but they’d exceed the first apron and need to reduce their salary. This complicates the pursuit of Klay Thompson.
Paul George Opts Out of Clippers Option
As for Paul George, he recently opted out of his contract, which opens several possibilities. He could re-sign with the Clippers or consider joining Philadelphia or Orlando. A sign-and-trade between the Clippers and Philadelphia seems unlikely, as it would hard cap the 76ers. With George, Maxey, and Embiid, Philadelphia would be near the first apron of $178.7 million.
If George leaves, the Clippers might bring back James Harden and use their non-taxpayer mid-level exception on players like D’Anthony Melton or Max Christie. The Clippers will need to navigate the market carefully.
Patrick Williams re-signed with Chicago on a five-year, $90 million deal. Meanwhile, the market for Zach LaVine is limited, and the Bulls are even considering attaching a first-round pick to move him. DeMar DeRozan’s situation remains uncertain, with potential interest from teams like Philadelphia, which could have $14-15 million in cap space.
Keep an eye on Utah, which might consider moving Markkanen if the right deal emerges. Detroit and San Antonio are also looking to create space, with the latter needing to waive Devonte Graham. Orlando, Oklahoma City, and others are managing their cap situations, with OKC expected to extend Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins after declining their options.
Richaun Holmes declined his option and signed a new contract to fit into a team’s non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which would hard cap that team upon acquiring him.
The evolving rules have significantly impacted teams’ strategies. One executive likened it to building a house only to be told to tear it down a year later. For Denver and Caldwell-Pope, this situation could lead to his departure. Watch for moves involving players like Miles Bridges, Tyus Jones, Klay Thompson, DeRozan, and Paul George as they headline an otherwise weak free-agent class. Additionally, Donovan Mitchell’s extension and potential moves involving D’Aaron Fox and Brandon Ingram could be pivotal. Markkanen is also a potential trade candidate as he enters the final year of his contract, with Utah looking to improve their roster.
As the 2024 NBA free agency period unfolds, teams navigate a complex landscape shaped by new cap rules and strategic decisions. With notable players like Klay Thompson, Paul George, and DeMar DeRozan potentially on the move, the stakes are high. The Mavericks and Clippers must make crucial moves to optimize their rosters while teams like Utah and Philadelphia explore opportunities to strengthen their lineups. Although not as star-studded, this year’s free agent class offers intriguing possibilities that could reshape the league’s balance. As the dust settles, the decisions made in this period will reverberate throughout the upcoming season, setting the stage for new rivalries and renewed championship aspirations.
