The Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers will meet for the second time this season in a critical Week 16 AFC West showdown. Both teams enter with postseason aspirations, but inconsistencies on both sides of the ball must be addressed to maintain their playoff trajectories.
Denver has been riding the momentum of a resurgent offense paired with a stingy defense, but questions linger about Bo Nix’s development late in his rookie campaign. Meanwhile, under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have been a tough team to pin down – particularly on offense – with flashes of explosive potential and concerning inefficiency.
Here’s a comprehensive look at both teams heading into this divisional battle.
Broncos Scouting Report
Team Overview
The Broncos enter Week 16 with momentum after scoring at least three offensive touchdowns in back-to-back games for the first time all season. Their Week 6 loss to the Chargers served as a wake-up call, and they’ve since handled all challenges outside of matchups against talents such as Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Key Player: Bo Nix, QB
Flashes of effectiveness have marked Bo Nix’s rookie campaign, but there are signs of a possible late-season wall. Nix’s QB+ rating – a stat that measures performance relative to the league average – has steadily declined over the past few weeks. His performance against fellow rookies, especially since Drake Maye’s debut, will be under the microscope Thursday night. Can Nix overcome these growing pains against a Chargers defense that has shown vulnerability on third downs recently?
Offense
The Broncos offense is showing signs of life with improved consistency. Courtland Sutton has emerged as a reliable target again, bouncing back after being held without a catch in Week 7 against the Saints. Sutton now boasts at least six receptions or a touchdown in every game since, proving his value as Nix’s go-to receiver.
The running game remains critical, especially with the Chargers’ struggles stopping third-down conversions in recent weeks. Javonte Williams and the ground attack will play a key role in controlling the tempo and giving Nix favorable passing opportunities.
Related: NFL Power Rankings: Week 16
Defense
Denver’s defense has been lights out in the red zone. Over the past five games, they’ve allowed just five touchdowns on 15 red-zone trips, showcasing their ability to tighten up when it matters most. Forcing field goals and capitalizing on turnovers will be key against a Chargers offense that has struggled to find rhythm in recent weeks.
Betting Note
The Broncos are just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six short-rest games as an underdog, a trend worth watching as they prepare for this Thursday Night Football clash.
Chargers Scouting Report
Team Overview
The Chargers come into Week 16 needing to find answers on offense. Despite their talent and an 8-6 record, they’ve scored 17 points in three straight games, an unusual occurrence that highlights their struggles to finish drives. If they want to sweep the season series against Denver, Los Angeles will need a more consistent showing.
Key Player: Justin Herbert, QB
Justin Herbert’s recent play has been marked by an increased willingness to push the ball downfield. From Weeks 11-15, his average depth of throw sits at 10.0 yards, a notable jump from 8.0 yards in Weeks 1-10. This aggressive approach is necessary but hasn’t yet translated to improved scoring output. Herbert must connect on big plays to test Denver’s red-zone defense.
Offense
One glaring issue for the Chargers is third-down efficiency. In their Week 15 game against the Buccaneers, they failed to convert a single third down (0-for-6), marking just the second time they’ve been shut out on third downs in the last decade. With Denver’s defense thriving in the red zone, converting third downs will be vital for the Chargers to sustain drives.
On a positive note, rookie receiver Ladd McConkey continues to impress. McConkey is on pace for 1,074 receiving yards this season and has a legitimate chance to break Keenan Allen’s franchise rookie record of 1,046 yards. He’ll need to deliver another strong performance, especially with fellow receiver Quentin Johnston still finding his footing.
Defense
The Chargers defense has regressed on third downs recently, allowing opponents to convert 56.7% of their attempts over the last two games. Compared to their impressive 30.2% rate in Weeks 6-13, they must rediscover their earlier form. Against Denver, the key will be pressuring Bo Nix into mistakes and slowing down the Broncos’ emerging ground game.
Betting Note
Underbets have cashed in both short-rest Chargers games this season, signaling a shift from their historical trend. Overs were 8-2-1 in such games between 2018-23.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Courtland Sutton vs. Chargers Secondary
Sutton’s resurgence gives Bo Nix a reliable deep threat, but the Chargers’ secondary, featuring standout Asante Samuel Jr., will look to challenge him. If Sutton can establish himself early, it could open the middle of the field for Denver’s playmakers. - Ladd McConkey vs. Broncos Secondary
McConkey has been Herbert’s most reliable weapon in recent weeks. Denver’s secondary, led by Patrick Surtain II, must account for McConkey’s route-running and ability to generate explosive plays. - Denver Red-Zone Defense vs. Chargers’ Scoring Struggles
The Broncos have thrived defensively in the red zone, while the Chargers have struggled to convert third downs and finish drives. If Denver can hold Los Angeles to field goals, it could tip the game in their favor. - Bo Nix vs. Chargers Pass Rush
With Nix showing signs of a rookie wall, the Chargers’ pass rush, led by Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, will look to apply pressure and force him into quick decisions.
Score Prediction
The Broncos and Chargers enter this matchup with something to prove, particularly on offense. Denver’s defense has been stout in the red zone, but their short-week struggles as underdogs could come into play here. Justin Herbert’s deep-passing resurgence and Ladd McConkey’s emergence should provide enough offensive spark for Los Angeles to secure a hard-fought win at home.
Final Score: Chargers 26, Broncos 20
