With just three regular-season games left, the Memphis Tigers (23-5, 13-2 AAC) are in prime position to claim the American Athletic Conference regular-season title and secure favorable NCAA Tournament seeding. However, their biggest challenge awaits them on Sunday—a road battle against a surging UAB Blazers (18-9, 11-3 AAC) team desperate to keep their AAC title hopes alive.
This highly anticipated rematch comes nearly a month after Memphis dismantled UAB 100-77 at FedExForum, a performance that marked the Tigers’ most dominant showing in conference play. But Sunday’s game will be a different challenge, as the Blazers have bounced back impressively since that defeat, winning six of their last seven contests.
Before facing Memphis, UAB had a crucial Thursday night showdown against Wichita State with major implications for the AAC standings. The Blazers capitalized on the opportunity, securing an 80-72 road victory over the Shockers. The win propelled UAB into sole possession of second place behind Memphis, setting the stage for an even more intense battle on Sunday as the Blazers look to tighten the gap in the conference race.
Memphis Remains in Control After Rice Victory
The Tigers extended their hot streak on Wednesday night, outlasting Rice 84-72 to complete the season sweep. Dain Dainja delivered a career-best performance, scoring 25 points with 10 rebounds, while PJ Haggerty added 21 points. Memphis used a late 10-0 run to pull away, showcasing the ability to finish strong in tight games, something they’ll need in Birmingham on Sunday.
This victory kept Memphis at the top of the AAC standings, 1.5 games ahead of UAB and North Texas entering the weekend. A win over the Blazers would put Penny Hardaway’s squad in full control of their regular-season championship hopes, potentially allowing them to lock up the title by next week.
UAB’s Bounce-Back Stretch Since Memphis Blowout
Since suffering their 23-point loss to Memphis on February 4, Andy Kennedy’s Blazers have found their stride, going 6-1 with victories over Tulane, Wichita State, and Temple. Their only loss in this stretch was a 79-75 defeat at East Carolina, a game that slipped away in the final minutes.
UAB’s resurgence has been fueled by their balanced scoring attack and improved defensive intensity. Leading the charge is Yaxel Lendeborg (17.6 PPG, 4.3 APG, 10.9 RPG), a dynamic big man who thrives in transition and can create plays for himself and his teammates. Forward Christian Coleman (11.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG) has also been dominant in the paint, giving the Blazers a formidable post presence.
In their February 4 loss to Memphis, UAB’s defense was completely exposed, as the Tigers shot a blistering 53.2% from the field and 52.9% from three-point range. This time, the Blazers will need a much stronger defensive performance, especially against Memphis’ frontcourt duo of Dainja and Moussa Cissé, who have been forces in the paint.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Dain Dainja vs. Yaxel Lendeborg
Dainja is coming off a career-best game against Rice, and his physicality and footwork in the post have made him one of the Tigers’ most consistent offensive weapons. Lendeborg, UAB’s top rebounder, will need to prevent second-chance points and slow down Dainja’s inside presence. This battle in the paint will be one of the defining factors in Sunday’s contest.
- PJ Haggerty vs. Alejandro Vasquez
Haggerty remains the Tigers’ most dynamic scoring option, averaging 21.2 PPG in AAC play. But he’ll face a tough defensive challenge in Alejandro Vasquez, who has the length and quickness to disrupt his driving lanes. If Haggerty can get to the free-throw line and dictate the pace, Memphis will have the edge.
- Memphis’ Three-Point Defense vs. UAB’s Shooters
Memphis has sometimes struggled to defend the perimeter, allowing Rice to keep things close with five made threes on Wednesday. UAB is not an elite three-point shooting team (34.6%), but they have multiple threats in Ja’Borri McGhee and Tony Toney, who can knock down big shots. If Memphis can close out effectively and prevent UAB from getting hot from deep, they’ll be in good shape.
Memphis’ Keys to Victory
- Control the Paint – The Tigers outscored UAB 54-32 in the paint in their last matchup, thanks to dominant performances from Dainja, Cissé, and Haggerty. They need to replicate that effort.
- Take Care of the Basketball – Memphis committed 15 turnovers against Rice, allowing the Owls to stay competitive for most of the game. UAB’s defense is opportunistic, so limiting mistakes is crucial.
- Win the Free Throw Battle – UAB struggles at the line (67.2%), while Memphis has been more efficient. Getting to the stripe and converting free throws could be the difference in a close contest.
Score Prediction
Memphis has responded well after losses this season, going 5-0 after a defeat, and Hardaway’s squad will be determined to avoid another letdown after their recent loss to Wichita State. However, this will be a much tougher matchup than the first meeting. UAB is desperate for a signature win, and they’ll be playing in front of an energized home crowd.
Still, Memphis has the advantage in size, scoring depth, and momentum. Expect the Tigers to survive a tight battle and extend their AAC lead with a hard-fought win.
Final Score: Memphis 84, UAB 81
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