Memphis football fans weren’t all too enthused by Athlon Sports’ American Conference 2025 predictions story, where they projected that the team would have a sixth-place finish this season. The team is coming off a program-best 11-2 record, which includes a Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl victory over West Virginia. However, the publications’ rankings place Tulane, Navy, South Florida, UTSA, and Army ahead of Memphis, citing a “significant rebuild” with only three returning starters and a No. 115 ranking in ESPN’s returning production metric.
The departure of four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, four key receivers, and 14 of the top 15 tacklers fuels this skepticism, painting Memphis as a team facing a steep climb in a crowded AAC race. The sixth-place projection feels like a gut punch for a fanbase accustomed to success under head coach Ryan Silverfield, whose 39-12 record over four seasons includes three straight bowl wins.
While the roster turnover is undeniable, Silverfield’s knack for mining transfer portal gems and a favorable 2025 schedule—featuring home games against Navy, USF, and Tulane suggests Memphis could defy the doubters and contend for the AAC title.
In 2025, the American Conference will have a similar vibe to what we have seen over the past three seasons. About three teams could win the conference title, while everyone else will be playing for second and third place. But the list can be drilled down to two if you can consider the significant turnover that Army went through during the offseason, especially at quarterback. However, it’s not like they are playing in the weekly gauntlet of the Southeastern Conference or the Big Ten; despite their losses, there’s still a chance that the Black Knights could repeat as conference champions.
For this year’s American championship game, Athlon projects that last year’s runner-up, the Tulane Green Wave, will face the Navy Midshipmen. If the Green Wave is to appear in this year’s title game, it will mark their fourth-straight appearance since 2022. It will also be the second year in a row that they have faced a service academy in the matchup. As for the projected winner, Athlon has sided with the Midshipmen.
Memphis’ 2024 loss to Navy (56-44) and a late-season defeat to UTSA (44-36) highlight vulnerabilities, especially defensively, where the Tigers allowed 29.3 points per game in conference play. With only three returning starters, coordinator Jordon Hankins faces a daunting task rebuilding around Whitlow and over 20 transfers. By comparison, Memphis is starting over.
Why Memphis Could Still Win the American Conference
But here’s the thing: don’t be surprised if Memphis defies the projections.
The Tigers might not have returning stars, but they’ve reloaded aggressively through the transfer portal. Quarterback Brendon Lewis, a transfer from Nevada and former Colorado starter, brings dual-threat ability and veteran poise. Freshman AJ Hill is waiting in the wings and could develop quickly if called upon. Running back Greg Desrosiers is expected to leap forward after flashing potential last season, and the offensive line returns several key contributors.
Silverfield has made a habit of finding gems. He’s not building his roster through hope; he’s building it through proven experience. In fact, over 20 transfers are expected to push for starting spots or key rotational roles this season.
Defensively, the Tigers will build around edge rusher William Whitlow, who led the team in sacks and decided to return rather than enter the portal. It’s not an established group, but the influx of new blood and JUCO talent will create competition and versatility. Don’t expect last year’s top-30 scoring defense to vanish completely.
Most importantly, Memphis has a schedule that lines up favorably. The presumed toughest games — Tulane, South Florida, and Navy — will be played at home. That’s not a small advantage. The Liberty Bowl has been a tough place for conference foes over the past few years, and Memphis is 14-3 at home since 2022.
If the new contributors gel quickly, the Tigers could be 4-1 or even 5-0 when Navy visits in early October.
Athlon’s Own Words Say It All
Even in their ranking, Athlon admitted that “not much separates the top six.” While Tulane and Navy got the nod, the publication acknowledged that Memphis is very much part of the title picture. The margin for error in the American Conference will be razor-thin. A key turnover, missed field goal, or road upset could decide who plays in December’s championship game.
Silverfield’s 21 wins over the last two seasons aren’t a fluke. His staff has created a system where Memphis doesn’t need a full year of experience to compete. The Tigers need execution, discipline, and some breakout players to emerge.
There’s also the motivation factor. Memphis wasn’t chosen for the expanded Big 12. They weren’t taken seriously in preseason polls. That’s fuel. You carry that into training camp, into two-a-days, and Week 1 against Southern.
It’s understandable why Memphis was slotted sixth. It’s a safe pick. It checks the boxes of returning production and established quarterback play. However, the American Conference doesn’t always follow conventional wisdom. Tulane and Army have both come out of nowhere in recent years. Navy was 4-8 in 2023 before winning 10 games the next season.
Memphis is more than capable of making a similar leap.
This year’s squad will look different. It won’t be Henigan throwing deep touchdown passes or Mario Anderson powering through tackles. But Brendon Lewis could be carving up defenses, and Desrosiers is emerging as the league’s next breakout back. It could be a retooled front seven, creating havoc while the secondary matures.
This isn’t a rebuild. It’s a reset that still has championship aspirations attached to it. So, does Memphis have a legitimate chance at winning the American Conference? Absolutely, but everything will depend on the team’s ability to gel together at the right time.
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