The Memphis Tigers’ had a phenomenal end to their season last year, beating Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl to secure the program’s first double-digit win total under Ryan Silverfield. But the honeymoon phase ends now: the Tigers have an opportunity to win the AAC with Seth Henigan in his senior year, which could secure them a spot in the newly expanded college football playoffs. Last year was great, but this year has a chance to permanently alter the trajectory of Memphis’ program, and the fact that Memphis is a favorite to win the AAC title cannot be taken for granted.
Tulane isn’t going down without a fight, which is why they were in the championship game last year. But now, more is on the line than ever, and even just appearing in a college football playoff game will work wonders for future recruiting. If they can make a playoff run, it would put Memphis into an entirely different universe of football schools. So, to discern what exactly Memphis is up against this year, let’s look at their path to success in 2024. I believe the Tigers have five key games on their schedule in 2024 that can make or break the season.
Their schedule starts rather easily with games against North Alabama and Troy in weeks one and two, but a week three matchup against Florida State is likely their toughest of the season. At least, that is what we all thought before the Seminoles were upset in Dublin by Georgia Tech in an absolute stunner. The Seminoles, recently viewed as invincible against teams like Memphis, are now mortal and wounded. While it will still be a tall task for the Tigers, it’s certainly doable and could earn them huge points in the polls.
The next key game on Memphis’ schedule is another Floridian team, this time South Florida, in what should be an epic rematch of their shootout from last year. In 2023, the Tigers came out on top, but not without a battle, ultimately prevailing 59-50 off the back of a career day for Seth Henigan. Now, in a primetime slot, the Bulls will likely test Memphis again, but these are the games that Memphis has to win to make their claim as a true contender for a playoff spot.
Following their about against South Florida, Memphis has a couple of easier games on the docket, but in week ten, they play UTSA, another potentially dangerous opponent. The Roadrunners had a 9-4 record last season off a win in the Frisco Bowl. They looked to be chasing success again with a powerful run game fueled by a combination of Kevorian Barnes, Robert Henry, and Rocko Griffin. With Owen McCown set to see his first significant snaps in his third year of eligibility, how UTSA will perform is somewhat of a wild card. Still, the roster will certainly be well coached and by no means a sleep-walk win for the Tigers, especially on the road.
The Tigers return home for week 11, where they’re set to face the Rice Owls, a team that finished below .500 last season but is moving in the right direction under head coach Mike Bloomgren. In the transfer portal, Rice focused on beefing up the line, bringing in 4-star tackle Chad Lindberg from Georgia, OT Spencer Cassell from Harvard, and DT Charles Looes from Dartmouth. As we know, battles are won and lost in the trenches, and this added depth would help Rice improve in 2024, could potentially pose a threat to Memphis and other AAC competitors.
Lastly, and potentially the most important matchup of the season for Memphis, is their week 13 matchup at Tulane to close out the regular season. The Green Wave stole one in front of the Memphis crowd last year, and now the Tigers have a chance to get them back with college football playoff stakes on the line. Of course, Tulane will be a fierce competitor in the AAC again after falling short in the championship game against SMU last season. However, in going up against an inexperienced quarterback in Ty Thompson, Memphis has a great window to win this year’s matchup.
Now that we’ve reviewed the schedule let’s get into some projections for Memphis this season. I believe the Tigers will finish with an 11-1 record, with their lone loss coming to either FSU or on the road against South Florida. They even have the potential to go undefeated if everything falls into place perfectly.
In the worst-case scenario, I think they could see some slight regression with an 8-4 regular season record. If they finish as projected, an 11-1 record should be enough to get Memphis into the college football playoffs. As a Group of 5 team, they need to win their division and be ranked higher than the other Group of 5 conference winners. That is what it will take to slot them into the 12th playoff spot, which adds plenty of pressure onto Silverfield’s team, which must be almost perfect. An 11-1 record would almost certainly get the job done, and it looks very much on the cards.
Seth Henigan’s meteoric rise is just too good to dismiss; his experience and talent automatically place Memphis among the top of the AAC and the heavy favorites to win it. His 32 to 9 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year ranked among college football’s best, and with incremental improvement in his senior season, Henigan could be eyeing the 4000 passing yard mark in 2024. But it’s not just the quarterback; the Tigers are fielding one of the most talented skill position groups in program history, led by Roc Taylor, who already had one of the best seasons of any receiver in football last season, tallying over 1000 yards. The offense should be balanced, too, with an incredibly potent run game to help Henigan benefit from the play action.
The defense, on the other hand, is going to have to improve. Last year, they gave up just shy of 40 points per game, which was 6th among the 133 qualified FCS schools. Thankfully, Memphis brought in over 20 defensive transfers in the offseason, including Reggie Grimes from Oklahoma, who should be a formidable threat to opposing quarterbacks.
The focus is on this season for Memphis, and rightfully so, but the Tigers staff already deserves so much credit and have accomplished so much. In recent years, there’s no chance they would’ve been able to bring in so much talent in one offseason, but Memphis is evolving into a new beast. They stand to be a more consistently competitive program in future seasons, even beyond Seth Henigan’s tenure with the team, because of how much more pull they now have with incoming recruits and transfers.
That said, this year, they can take their program’s prestige up another notch or even two. Only time will tell what happens to Memphis this year, but one thing’s for sure: coach Silverfield and the Tigers will fight tooth and nail.
Projected Outlook and Record: 11-1 (Potential Playoff Team)
