The AAC Tournament kicks off in full force on Friday, March 14, with the No. 1-seeded Memphis Tigers (26-5, 16-2 AAC) set to take on the No. 8 seed Wichita State Shockers (19-13, 8-10 AAC) in a highly anticipated quarterfinal matchup. This will be the third meeting between the two teams this season, and both have everything to play for, albeit for different reasons.
For Wichita State, Friday’s game is a must-win—and potentially the start of a Cinderella bid for an NCAA Tournament spot. The Shockers are not currently projected to make the field of 68, but an upset win over Memphis could drastically change their outlook. If they make a deep tournament run, they could become the AAC’s “bid stealer”, securing an automatic berth and shrinking the number of at-large spots available.
Their ticket to the Big Dance is already punched for Memphis, but their goal extends beyond just getting in. A strong showing in the AAC Tournament and their regular-season conference title would strengthen their NCAA Tournament seeding and possibly push them into the 5-6 seed range. A loss, however, could keep them stuck at their current 7-9 seed projection, making their path in March Madness much tougher.
With both teams having so much at stake, expect a highly competitive battle in Fort Worth.
Wichita State vs. Memphis: Season Series Recap
Memphis and Wichita State split the regular-season meetings, with each team winning at home:
- First matchup (Jan. 23, 2025 – Memphis, TN): Memphis won 61-53 in a tight battle, with PJ Haggerty leading the way with 22 points. The Tigers dominated offensively but struggled with free throw shooting and late-game execution, allowing Wichita State to nearly complete a comeback.
- Second matchup (Feb. 16, 2025 – Wichita, KS): Wichita State stunned Memphis in overtime, 84-79. This game exposed key weaknesses in Memphis’ play—especially rebounding and shooting efficiency. The Shockers outrebounded Memphis 54-45, a key factor in their victory. Memphis also saw underwhelming performances from two of its biggest stars:
- Dain Dainja: Just 4 points and 1 rebound in his worst season performance.
- PJ Haggerty: Scored 15 points but shot just 4-for-18 from the field, struggling against the Shockers’ physical defense.
If Memphis wants to take care of business on Friday, those two must step up and avoid a repeat of their poor outings from the second meeting.
Keys to the Game
- Memphis Must Win the Rebounding Battle
In their last meeting, the Shockers bullied the Tigers on the glass, winning the rebounding battle 54-45. Memphis cannot afford to let that happen again. Dain Dainja and Nicholas Jourdain must be aggressive in securing boards, and the Tigers need team-rebounding contributions from their guards. If they allow Wichita State second-chance opportunities, this game could get dangerous in the final minutes.
- Dain Dainja and PJ Haggerty Must Deliver
Memphis cannot afford another quiet game from Dainja and Haggerty.
- Dainja needs to be the dominant interior force Memphis relies on, using his size and athleticism to score efficiently and battle on the glass.
- Haggerty has to be more efficient and take smart shots rather than forcing difficult looks like he did in the last meeting.
With so much on the line, Memphis’ stars must perform at a high level to avoid another upset.
- Control the Pace and Execute Late
In the last game, Memphis led in overtime but failed to execute when it mattered most.
- The Tigers must control the tempo, using their fast-paced offense to keep Wichita State on its heels.
- Turnovers and poor shot selection late in the game have been issues in tight contests. Memphis cannot afford to let Wichita State hang around—the longer this game is close, the more dangerous the Shockers become.
If Memphis plays focused, disciplined basketball, they should be able to pull away late.
Prediction: Memphis Avoids Another Slip-Up
The stakes are too high for Memphis to allow another upset. The Tigers are the more talented team and have had time to adjust since their last meeting with Wichita State. Expect Haggerty and Dainja to bounce back while Colby Rogers continues his hot shooting stretch to lead Memphis past the Shockers.
Wichita State will put up a fight, but Memphis will take care of business and advance to the AAC semifinals.
Final Score Prediction:
Memphis 89, Wichita State 77
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