On Thursday evening, NFL Network insider Ian Rappaport reported that the Jacksonville Jaguars have signed Trevor Lawrence to a new contract extension. The deal spans five years and is worth $275 million, with a total of $142 million fully guaranteed and another $200 million in guarantees. This significant investment has sparked a wide range of reactions online, from media members, analysts, and pundits alike.
Opinions on this deal are mixed. Some critics argue that Lawrence has not yet accomplished enough to merit such a substantial contract. Conversely, supporters believe the Jaguars are making a smart move by securing a quarterback with an enormous potential ceiling at the next level. Personally, I’ve previously expressed that I would have preferred to see how Lawrence performed this season before committing to such a significant contract. However, I understand the Jaguars’ decision. Waiting longer could have resulted in an even larger financial commitment. Given the trend in quarterback salaries, Lawrence’s extension sets a new benchmark, impacting negotiations for other quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, whose next contract is now poised to be even more lucrative.
I understand why the Jaguars were proactive in securing this deal because once Dak Prescott signs his new contract, the Jaguars’ investment in Lawrence might look like a bargain. However, it’s important to consider whether Lawrence truly deserves this massive extension at this point in his career. Many, including myself, believe that he hasn’t yet lived up to the “generational talent” label he carried out of college at Clemson. The lofty expectations placed on him haven’t been fully met.
In 2022, the Jaguars won their division in Doug Peterson’s second season as head coach. Despite this success, they missed an opportunity to dominate the AFC South, faltering down the stretch as the Houston Texans gained momentum. Given Lawrence’s new contract, the Jaguars must be confident that he is their quarterback of the future, especially since they are investing heavily in the most critical position on the team.
Based on what I’ve seen from Trevor Lawrence, I don’t view him as a generational talent. He is a good, solid quarterback, but the extraordinary promise he showed in college hasn’t fully materialized at the professional level yet.
Considering Trevor Lawrence’s skill set, including his arm strength and mobility, I believe that with the right coaching, weapons, and a solid defense, his ceiling could reach the level of what we saw from Matt Ryan during his 2016 MVP season.
In 2016, Matt Ryan had an exceptional year, throwing for 4,944 yards, 38 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. His performance led the Atlanta Falcons to an 11-5 record and a Super Bowl appearance. Ryan’s ability to read defenses, combined with his accurate passing and leadership, made him the league’s Most Valuable Player.
Can a team win a Super Bowl with a quarterback like Matt Ryan at his peak? Absolutely. The Falcons held a 25-point lead over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LI, a testament to Ryan’s capabilities. Their eventual loss was more about coaching decisions, specifically abandoning the run game, rather than Ryan’s performance.
When Ryan was at his best, he was surrounded by top-tier talent like Julio Jones, Roddy White, Devonta Freeman, and Tony Gonzalez, along with a strong defense. This support helped elevate his game to MVP level. Similarly, I believe Trevor Lawrence can reach that level with the right pieces around him.
However, I don’t see Lawrence as a generational prospect. A true generational talent should be able to elevate average players and overcome challenging situations. While Lawrence has shown promise, he has yet to demonstrate this ability consistently. The narrative of being a generational talent from college remains unfulfilled until he can regularly elevate C to B-level talent around him.
Trevor Lawrence faced NFL-level competition during his college career, going up against powerhouse teams like Alabama, Ohio State, and the 2019 LSU squad, which was filled with future NFL talent. While he did secure a significant victory against Nick Saban’s Alabama team, which fueled the hype around him, he also experienced notable losses to Ohio State and LSU. These mixed results contribute to the ongoing debate about his potential and readiness for a massive NFL contract extension.
The AFC South is becoming increasingly competitive. The Houston Texans have built a Super Bowl-caliber roster around their new quarterback, C.J. Stroud. If Shane Steichen can replicate his success with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia and apply it to Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis, the Colts will also pose a significant challenge, boasting strong offensive and defensive weapons. Meanwhile, the Tennessee Titans have fortified their team through free agency and the draft. If Will Levis proves to be the right quarterback for them, the Titans will be another formidable contender in the division.
Given these developments, the Jaguars’ decision to extend Lawrence’s contract reflects their confidence in his ability to lead them to success. They wouldn’t make such an investment if they didn’t believe he was capable of overcoming these challenges. This season will be crucial in proving Lawrence’s worth.
Lawrence’s first year in the NFL was marred by the tumultuous tenure of head coach Urban Meyer, which ended prematurely. In his second year, under the leadership of Doug Pederson, the Jaguars made a late run to win the AFC South. In 2023, they were favored to repeat as division champions and even had Super Bowl aspirations but faltered down the stretch, allowing the Texans to claim the AFC South crown. This season, the Jaguars must start strong and maintain their momentum, as the Texans and other division rivals are not backing down.
The pressure is on for Lawrence to demonstrate his true potential and justify his new contract. The Jaguars are betting on his ability to rise to the occasion, and we’ll soon see if he can meet these high expectations.
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