As the Kansas City Chiefs sit undefeated at 4-0, on top of the AFC, and looking every bit like the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, the question lingers—can the New Orleans Saints be the team to hand them their first loss of the season finally? It’s a primetime Monday Night Football showdown in Arrowhead Stadium, with the entire football world, and likely Taylor Swift, watching closely. While many might view the Chiefs as the favorites this Monday, there’s reason to believe the Saints have a real chance in this matchup.
Why the Saints Have a 60% Chance of Winning
Though giving the Saints a 60-70% chance of beating the Chiefs may seem bold, there’s merit in the argument. The Saints are playing Kansas City at the perfect time. Despite their back-to-back Super Bowl victories, the Chiefs haven’t been flawless. This season, they’ve been winning games, but just barely. They were nearly beaten in Week 1 by Baltimore, with a last-second endzone mistake saving Kansas City. Week 2 saw the Bengals give them a scare, only to be undone by a controversial officiating decision. Week 3 was a narrow escape against the Falcons, and in Week 4, they edged out the Chargers in a low-scoring battle. The Chiefs have proven they can be beaten; opponents haven’t capitalized on mistakes, especially when Patrick Mahomes turns the ball over.
The Saints, meanwhile, are catching Kansas City at a moment when their offense is vulnerable. Star wide receiver Rashee Rice will miss the game due to a knee injury, leaving the Chiefs without their top pass-catcher. Their wide receiver corps is notably depleted—Xavier Worthy is their best option, but he’s a far cry from the days of Tyreek Hill. The lack of firepower outside of tight end Travis Kelce gives the Saints a potential edge on defense. The key will be keeping Kelce in check, as the Saints have struggled to defend tight ends all season. Limiting his impact while preventing Mahomes from finding other options through Andy Reid’s creative play-calling will be critical.
The Blueprint to Beating the Chiefs
To beat the Chiefs, the Saints must play a conservative, smart brand of football. They can’t afford to get into a shootout with Mahomes. Instead, they should focus on a balanced offensive attack, controlling the time of possession and keeping the Chiefs’ dynamic offense on the sidelines as much as possible. The Saints’ best path to victory will be running the ball effectively, managing the clock, and minimizing turnovers.
Defensively, New Orleans has shown they have the pieces to disrupt Kansas City’s rhythm. The Chiefs’ offense hasn’t been as explosive as it once was, and with running back Isaiah Pacheco also out for this game, their ground game will be significantly weakened. This opens the door for the Saints’ defense to step up, pressuring Mahomes into mistakes they can capitalize on.
The Saints’ Biggest Challenge: Chiefs’ Defense
While the Chiefs’ offense may not be the juggernaut it once was, their defense has been outstanding. Chris Jones remains a dominant force on the defensive line, while Trent McDuffie and Nick Bolton provide playmaking ability in the secondary and at linebacker, respectively. The Saints’ offensive coordinator, Klint Kubiak, must be at his best to navigate this tough defense. Protecting quarterback Derek Carr will be crucial, as any pressure from Chris Jones and the defensive front could disrupt the Saints’ game plan.
Timing is Everything
Ultimately, the timing of this matchup works in the Saints’ favor. The Chiefs are banged up, their offense hasn’t looked as sharp, and the Saints are playing with a sense of urgency. If they can cut down on the costly mistakes that have haunted them in recent games and play a smart, conservative game, they stand a real chance of walking out of Arrowhead with a win.
A victory here would be monumental for New Orleans. It would put them at 3-2, setting up a favorable stretch of games, including a showdown with division rival Tampa Bay and a highly anticipated matchup with former head coach Sean Payton in Week 7. Timing, as they say, is everything in the NFL, and the Saints may be catching the Chiefs at the right time to pull off a primetime upset.
The Chiefs are due for a loss—but will it be against the Saints? The opportunity is there, and if New Orleans plays to its strengths, it could leave Arrowhead with a signature win.
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