The 2025 NFL offseason is in full swing, and bold predictions for all 32 teams are rolling in. According to Pro Football & Sports Network, formally called Pro Football Network, the New Orleans Saints are projected to finish closer to the nine-win mark from 2023 than the five-win disaster they endured in 2024. But how realistic is this outlook?
Under new head coach Kellen Moore, the Saints are in a pivotal moment—trying to rebuild their offensive identity, navigate an aging roster, and overcome a brutal salary cap situation. Will 2025 be a year of resurgence, or are the Saints set for another frustrating season? Let’s break down both sides of the argument and see if Pro Football & Sports Network’s prediction holds up.
The Case for a Saints Bounce-Back
Healthier Roster, More Wins?
Injuries were one of the biggest reasons for the Saints’ decline in 2024. Key players like Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Erik McCoy, and Taysom Hill all missed time. A healthier season could allow New Orleans to maximize its potential, especially with Kellen Moore implementing a new offensive system.
Derek Carr’s Efficiency vs. Offensive Dysfunction
Despite the struggles, Derek Carr finished 11th in PFSN’s QB+ grading system, ahead of QBs like Sam Darnold and Jordan Love. However, the offense ranked 22nd, revealing a massive gap between quarterback play and overall production. The Saints had the talent to move the ball but lacked consistency in execution.
If Moore can install a more dynamic offensive system that maximizes Carr’s strengths and puts his weapons in better positions, the Saints should be more productive in 2025.
Related: Rebuilding the Saints Offense Under Kellen Moore
Improving Close-Game Execution
New Orleans tied for the second-most losses in games decided by a field goal or less in 2024. The team consistently struggled to close out tight contests. Interestingly, Carr has historically won 58.7% of such games in his career, meaning some positive regression could be on the way.
If Moore’s offensive scheme can help sustain leads rather than playing from behind, the Saints could turn some of last year’s close losses into wins.
Weak NFC South Gives Saints an Opening
The NFC South remains one of the weakest divisions in football, and a nine-win season could realistically put the Saints in playoff contention. If New Orleans can sweep some division opponents and remain competitive in non-division games, a 9-8 record is attainable—as long as the team avoids the pitfalls of 2024.
The Counterargument: Is Nine Wins Too Ambitious?
What If Kellen Moore Moves On from Carr?
PFSN’s prediction assumes Derek Carr remains the Saints’ starting quarterback, but that is far from guaranteed. If Moore decides to cut or trade Carr, the entire outlook for 2025 changes.
A post-June 1st cut would save the Saints $30 million, but it would leave them with a major question mark at QB. Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler are unproven, and any rookie or veteran replacement would face an uphill battle in Moore’s system. If the Saints move on from Carr, a complete rebuild could be on the horizon, and a six-to-seven-win season may be more realistic.
The Salary Cap Crisis
The Saints remain in salary cap purgatory, currently $52.3 million over the cap. While restructures and cuts will help, the possibility of losing key veterans like Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis, and Taysom Hill could hurt depth and leadership.
Without aggressive spending in free agency, any improvements will have to come through the draft, which could limit their ability to make a dramatic turnaround.
Lack of Explosiveness in the Passing Game
Even with talent at WR, the Saints’ offense struggled with explosive plays, ranking 31st in passing efficiency outside of deep throws. If Moore cannot fix the short and intermediate passing attack, the offense may remain stagnant—especially if the offensive line struggles again.
How Do the Other NFC South Teams Stack Up?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Will the Offense Stay Elite?
Bold Prediction: Tampa Bay’s offense won’t miss a beat despite another OC change.
- The Bucs finished 3rd in Offense+ in 2024, and they’ve retained much of the same system despite losing OC Liam Coen to Jacksonville.
- Josh Grizzard was promoted to OC, and Tampa Bay still has Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and a solid offensive line.
- If Mayfield continues his career resurgence, the Bucs could be the team to beat in the division.
- Counterpoint: The Bucs have had four offensive coordinators in four years. Eventually, instability catches up, and Mayfield’s ceiling remains limited.
Carolina Panthers: Can Bryce Young Take the Next Step?
Bold Prediction: Bryce Young will surpass 4,000 passing yards in 2025.
- Young showed major improvement in the final stretch 2024, thanks to Dave Canales implementing a more aggressive passing attack.
- With a young core of skill players, Young could experience a Baker Mayfield-like leap in his second year under Canales.
- Counterpoint: Carolina’s offensive line remains a major liability, and Young must prove he can handle a full season of increased pass volume.
Atlanta Falcons: Will Michael Penix Jr. Become a Touchdown Machine?
Bold Prediction: Penix leads all second-year QBs in TD passes.
- The Falcons offensive line is ranked 11th in OL+, giving Penix a strong foundation to succeed.
- Drake London remains an elite No. 1 WR, giving Penix a go-to target in scoring situations.
- Atlanta will be in many shootouts, meaning Penix will have plenty of passing opportunities.
- Counterpoint: Potential costly decisions made by the Falcons coaching staff could stifle the growth of Penix and the rest of the team’s talent roster.
Final Verdict: Can the Saints Hit Nine Wins?
There’s logic behind PFSN’s projection, but it assumes: ✔️ The Saints will be healthier in 2025
Kellen Moore sticks with Derek Carr.
The offense takes a step forward under Moore’s system
The Saints win more of their close games
However, if Moore moves on from Carr, the Saints could be heading for a full rebuild—meaning a six-to-seven-win season might be more realistic.
Click here to view PFSN’s full list of bold predictions for all 32 teams.
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Lawrence Epps Jr
February 15, 2025 at 3:09 pm
CarrWreck’s QB rating is built almost entirely off of garbage time stats. After the game is decided and the other team has back-ups on the field, he becomes an All-Pro! Meanwhile when the game’s on th eline, he plays like hot garbage — totally nervous in the pocket with no scrambling ability and a penchant for throwing picks at exactly the wrong time (see both ATL games). Whether the Saints can get to 9 wins will not depend on CarrWreck but on whether they can build decent offensive and defensive lines. If they can then Spencer Rattler can lead a run heavy offense, that can then play action pass, to be an effective attack. With a better from the defense can stop the run and the DBs won’t have to cover fro 4+ seconds per pass attempt. In any case tm his isn’t a deep playoff run roster so let’s start the reload by letting Carr go and moving on with a younger QB in Rattler.