The Memphis Tigers are set to embark on their March Madness journey as a No. 5 seed in the West Region, and as expected, national outlets are breaking down their strengths, weaknesses, and overall outlook for the tournament. The Athletic’s Rob Dauster provided an in-depth preview of some 68 teams, offering optimism and concern regarding Memphis’ ability to make a deep run.
Dauster’s analysis paints a picture of a dangerous, versatile team capable of making noise yet vulnerable in certain areas that could lead to an early exit. Here’s a breakdown of his assessment and what it means for Memphis’ chances in the tournament.
Strengths: Memphis’ Backcourt is Among the Best in College Basketball
One of the biggest takeaways from The Athletic’s preview is how highly Memphis’ backcourt is regarded. Dauster highlights PJ Haggerty, Tyrese Hunter, and Colby Rogers as one of the nation’s best perimeter trios.
Haggerty, the AAC Player of the Year, is a pure scorer and one of the best at getting to the free-throw line. His ability to absorb contact and finish plays keeps Memphis’ offense flowing even when the shots aren’t falling.
Meanwhile, Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers provide the high ceiling for the Tigers. Both guards are capable of explosive scoring nights, which makes Memphis an extremely dangerous three-point shooting team—they enter the tournament hitting nearly 39% from beyond the arc.
Dauster also praises the impact of Dain Dainja, calling him a “refrigerator with ballerina’s feet” for his soft touch and footwork in the paint. The Illinois transfer has become a legitimate low-post scoring threat, giving Memphis another offensive weapon when opponents look to slow down the backcourt.
What This Means for Memphis’ Tournament Chances:
- The Tigers have multiple offensive weapons—if one or two players struggle, others can take over.
- Their three-point shooting gives them an edge over teams that struggle to defend the perimeter.
- Dainja’s presence down low makes Memphis more than just a jump-shooting team, allowing them to win in multiple ways.
Weaknesses: Memphis Must Overcome Turnover and Rebounding Issues
While Dauster acknowledges Memphis’ explosive offense, he also raises concerns about their deficiencies in two critical areas:
- Turnover rate (outside the top 275 nationally)
- Defensive rebounding (also ranked outside the top 275)
Simply put, Memphis gives away too many possessions—whether it’s through careless turnovers or failing to secure defensive rebounds. These weaknesses play right into the hands of teams that rely on full-court pressure or strong offensive rebounding.
What This Means for Memphis’ Tournament Chances:
- Teams that force turnovers can make life miserable for the Tigers.
- Memphis must be disciplined with the ball and avoid unnecessary mistakes.
- Second-chance points could be costly.
- The Tigers must box out and crash the boards aggressively, especially if they face a team with dominant big men.
- Matchups matter.
- If Memphis draws a team like Houston, St. John’s, or Texas A&M, they could be in trouble because those teams specialize in applying defensive pressure and attacking the glass.
Outlook: Memphis Has the Talent, But It’s All About the Matchups
Perhaps the most telling part of Dauster’s analysis is that Memphis’ success in March will depend on the matchups.
He points out that the Tigers have proven they can beat top-tier teams, citing wins over:
These victories weren’t flukes—Memphis has the talent to compete with elite programs. However, certain teams will pose matchup nightmares due to their pressure defense and rebounding ability.
Dauster suggests a Final Four run is unlikely, but a Sweet 16 or even an Elite Eight appearance isn’t out of the question if the right teams get knocked out early.
The X-Factor: Tyrese Hunter’s Injury
One of the biggest storylines heading into the tournament is the status of Tyrese Hunter. Dauster clarifies that his foot injury could be a major issue for Memphis.
Hunter did not play in the AAC Tournament final against UAB and was spotted in a walking boot. If he’s not fully healthy, that puts even more pressure on Haggerty and Rogers to handle the ball and create offense.
What Memphis Must Do If Hunter Is Limited:
- Baraka Okojie will need to step up. The backup guard has had flashes of solid play this season, but he’ll need to avoid turnovers and be an effective ball-handler.
- Memphis must be extra careful with turnovers. Without Hunter’s ability to break pressure, opposing defenses may look to trap Haggerty and Rogers.
- Dain Dainja’s role becomes even bigger. If the backcourt is shorthanded, the Tigers may need to lean more on Dainja’s post-scoring ability.
Memphis’ Path to a Deep Run
Memphis isn’t a traditional No. 5 seed—they have the talent of a top-15 team and an explosive offense that can win games against elite competition. However, their weaknesses in rebounding and turnovers could cost them if they run into the wrong opponent.
Best-Case Scenario:
- Memphis gets favorable matchups and avoids teams specializing in offensive rebounding and defensive pressure.
- Tyrese Hunter returns to full strength and helps stabilize the backcourt.
- Haggerty, Rogers, and Dainja continue their high-level play, leading the Tigers to a second-weekend appearance or beyond.
Worst-Case Scenario:
- The Tigers face a team that forces turnovers and dominates the boards, causing their weaknesses to be fully exposed.
- Hunter is limited or can’t play, putting too much pressure on Haggerty and Rogers.
- Memphis struggles to control the tempo and suffers an early exit.
Memphis has the talent to make a deep run but must clean up its weaknesses to avoid an early upset. If they can take care of the ball, rebound effectively, and get solid contributions from their three-headed monster in the backcourt, this team can make some serious noise in March Madness.
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