The Memphis Tigers have spent most of the season as the clear-cut favorite in the American Athletic Conference (AAC). Still, their recent 84-79 overtime loss to Wichita State has complicated their path to March Madness. While Penny Hardaway’s squad remains at the top of the standings with an 11-2 conference record (21-5 overall), the loss to the Shockers is classified as a Quad 3 defeat, which could have significant implications for their NCAA Tournament seeding. More importantly, it has created the possibility of a second AAC team earning an at-large bid—or worse, a scenario where Memphis must rely on an automatic bid to secure a spot in the field of 68.
With UAB, Florida Atlantic (FAU), and North Texas gaining momentum, the threat of an AAC bid stealer is becoming more realistic. If one of those teams wins the AAC Tournament while Memphis falls short, the Tigers could be in jeopardy of slipping into the bubble. Here’s why the race for the AAC’s automatic bid has intensified and what Memphis must do to ensure they control their destiny.
How the Loss to Wichita State Increases the Risk of a Two-Bid AAC
Memphis’ Quad 3 loss at Wichita State didn’t just end their eight-game winning streak—it also weakened their grip on the conference lead and made them more vulnerable to a scenario where the AAC sends two teams to the NCAA Tournament.
Why the Wichita State Loss Hurts
- Impact on Seeding:
- Before the loss, Memphis was positioned as a potential No. 4 or No. 5 seed in most NCAA Tournament projections.
- Now, bracketologists have indicated that the loss could drop the Tigers to a No. 6 or No. 7 seed, making their path to the second weekend of March Madness more difficult.
- Strengthening Other AAC Contenders:
- North Texas, UAB, and FAU are all within striking distance of Memphis in the standings.
- If one of them wins the AAC Tournament without Memphis securing an at-large bid, the AAC could become a two-bid league—but not with Memphis as one of the teams.
- Perception vs. Reality:
- Memphis remains the best team in the AAC, but their metrics (NET, KenPom, and Strength of Schedule) aren’t elite.
- A second bad loss before the AAC Tournament could push them closer to the bubble rather than solidifying them as a lock.
The AAC’s Bid Stealers: UAB, North Texas, and FAU
Memphis has been in control for most of the season, but several teams can potentially steal an NCAA Tournament bid if they peak at the right time.
- North Texas (9-3 AAC, 18-6 Overall)
- Why They’re a Threat:
- They are one of the hottest teams in the AAC, riding a six-game winning streak before falling to Memphis.
- Their defensive efficiency ranks among the best in the country, making them a tough out in a win-or-go-home setting.
- Path to Stealing a Bid:
- They could earn an at-large bid even without winning the championship if they win out and make a deep AAC Tournament run.
- UAB (9-3 AAC, 16-9 Overall)
- Why They’re a Threat:
- A preseason favorite that struggled early but has found its stride in conference play.
- Features one of the most experienced rosters in the AAC, which makes them dangerous in tournament settings.
- Path to Stealing a Bid:
- Defeating Memphis in their March 2 rematch could shift the conference standings dramatically.
- A conference title run could make them AAC Tournament champions and leave Memphis needing an at-large bid.
- Florida Atlantic (8-4 AAC, 15-10 Overall)
- Why They’re a Threat:
- Last season’s preseason favorite and 2023 Final Four participant hasn’t had the same magic this season but can make a deep run.
- Their ability to shoot well from three and control tempo makes them a tough opponent in a single-elimination format.
- The Owls are currently on a five-game winning streak.
- Path to Stealing a Bid:
- If they win out, finish with 20+ wins, and win the AAC Tournament, the conference could send two teams to March Madness.
What Memphis Must Do to Control Their Destiny
Despite the loss to Wichita State, Memphis still can dictate its fate. The Tigers don’t need to win the AAC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, but they can’t afford another slip-up.
- Win at Least 4 of Their Final 5 Games
Memphis’ remaining schedule:
- Florida Atlantic (February 23) – Home
- Rice (February 26) – Home
- UAB (March 2) – Away
- UTSA (March 4) – Away
- South Florida (March 7) – Home
Ideal Finish: 4-1 or 5-0
- A 5-0 finish would guarantee Memphis a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
- A 4-1 finish with a loss to UAB or North Texas could keep them in No. 5 or 6 seed territory.
- Anything less than 4-1 puts Memphis at risk of needing to win the AAC Tournament to secure a spot in March Madness.
- Avoid a Bad Loss Before the Tournament
- The loss to Wichita State was damaging because it was a Quad 3 loss.
- Games against Tulsa and Temple must be convincing wins to avoid further damage to Memphis’ seeding.
- Make a Deep AAC Tournament Run
- Winning the AAC Tournament would remove all doubt and make Memphis a top-4 seed.
- If Memphis loses in the AAC semifinals, they may still be fine but could end up as a No. 7 or 8 seed.
- A loss in the AAC quarterfinals could put them on the bubble.
Final Verdict: Will the AAC Be a Two-Bid League?
If Memphis finishes strong (4-1 or 5-0) and makes a deep AAC Tournament run, the conference will likely remain a one-bid league. However, if UAB, FAU, or North Texas wins the tournament, and Memphis doesn’t secure an at-large spot, the AAC could easily send two teams to the NCAA Tournament—with Memphis left out.
Ultimately, Memphis still controls its fate but cannot afford another bad loss. They will enter March Madness as a solid 5 or 6 seed if they handle business. If they stumble, a bid-stealer could emerge—and the Tigers might find themselves sweating on Selection Sunday.
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