The Memphis Tigers are looking to bounce back from a frustrating overtime loss to Wichita State as they prepare for a crucial home matchup against the Florida Atlantic Owls on Sunday. The Tigers (21-5, 11-2 AAC) remain in control of their destiny at the top of the American Athletic Conference standings. Still, every game matters as they look to solidify their NCAA Tournament seeding.
Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic (15-11, 8-5 AAC) enters this contest with a chance to shake up the AAC race. The Owls had won five straight games before suffering a setback against Wichita State on Thursday. While FAU is unlikely to receive an at-large bid, a strong finish in conference play could position them to make noise as a potential bid-stealer in the AAC Tournament.
Memphis dominated the first meeting between these two teams in January, cruising to a 90-62 victory on the road. However, FAU has improved significantly since then, making this rematch more intriguing. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.
Tigers Must Rebound from Disappointing Loss
The Tigers’ 84-79 overtime loss to Wichita State last Sunday was a significant blow, snapping their eight-game winning streak and damaging their NCAA Tournament resume. Memphis dropped in the AP (No. 22) and Coaches Poll (No. 19) while slipping to a 7-seed in Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm’s Bracketology.
A victory over FAU won’t dramatically improve Memphis’ resume, but another loss could be disastrous. Given how tight the AAC race is, the Tigers can’t afford to drop another game if they want to secure the No. 1 seed in the AAC Tournament and avoid a dangerous March Madness seeding slip.
One positive trend for Memphis is its resilience after losses. The Tigers are 4-0 following defeats this season, showing an ability to refocus and respond well in bounce-back situations.
Related: Memphis Not Listed in Early NCAA Tournament 16-Seed Preview
Florida Atlantic: A Dangerous Underdog
The Owls have quietly turned their season around after a slow start. Following their 90-62 loss to Memphis on January 4th, FAU reeled off an 8-3 record before falling to Wichita State on Thursday.
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Head coach John Jakus has done a solid job making adjustments, particularly in tightening FAU’s defensive rotations and getting more production from his frontcourt. The Owls have relied on a balanced scoring attack, with four players averaging double figures:
Key Players for FAU
- Kaleb Glenn (F, 6’7”) – 12.9 PPG, 55.3% FG
- Tre Carroll (F, 6’8”) – 12.2 PPG, 52.4% FG, 5.3 RPG
- Baba Miller (PF, 6’11”) – 10.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.8 BPG
- Leland Walker (G, 6’1”) – 4.2 APG, Team’s top playmaker
FAU’s Strengths & Weaknesses
📈 Offensive Strengths:
- Scoring: FAU ranks 36th in the country in points per game (80.1), meaning they can push the tempo and get into a rhythm offensively.
- Ball Movement: The Owls average 16.2 assists per game (32nd nationally), demonstrating their ability to create open looks.
- Effective Shooting: FAU shoots 46.6% from the field (69th in the nation) and 35.2% from three (102nd), making them a well-balanced offensive team.
📉 Defensive Weaknesses:
- Allowing Too Many Points: FAU ranks 297th in opponent scoring, giving up 77.3 points per game.
- Three-Point Defense: The Owls rank 362nd in opponent three-point percentage (38.8%), a glaring issue that Memphis could exploit.
- Rebounding Issues: FAU allows 9.7 offensive rebounds per game, ranking 299th nationally. This could be a major problem against Memphis’ frontcourt.
Memphis’ Keys to Victory
- Control the Glass
The first meeting between these teams was a rebounding clinic for Memphis, as they dominated the boards. The Tigers need another big game from Dain Dainja and Moussa Cissé, who have been excellent at protecting the rim and controlling second-chance opportunities.
- Ball Security & Better Shot Selection
Memphis struggled with turnovers against Wichita State, committing 15 giveaways. The Tigers must take care of the ball and avoid unforced errors.
Additionally, Memphis shot just 36% from the field in the overtime loss to Wichita State. Players like PJ Haggerty and Colby Rogers must find their rhythm early to keep FAU’s defense on its heels.
- Defensive Intensity
Florida Atlantic can put up points in bunches, and if Memphis lets them get hot from beyond the arc, it could be a long night. Penny Hardaway’s squad must contest every perimeter shot and force FAU into tougher looks inside.
Score Prediction
Memphis is at home, coming off a loss, and historically plays well in bounce-back games. While the Tigers’ first matchup with FAU was a blowout victory, the Owls have been more competitive recently.
FAU’s defensive struggles, particularly their inability to defend the three-point line, should allow Memphis to capitalize from beyond the arc.
Look for PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter to take control early while Dain Dainja and Moussa Cissé dominate the paint. The Tigers will handle business and sweep the season series against FAU.
Final Score Prediction: Memphis 85, Florida Atlantic 72
Memphis will improve to 22-5 overall and 12-2 in AAC play, keeping their position at the top of the standings while strengthening their grip on a potential NCAA Tournament berth.
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