With just four games remaining in the regular season, the No. 18 Memphis Tigers (22-5, 12-2 AAC) are in a prime position to capture their first-ever AAC regular-season title and solidify their standing as an NCAA Tournament team. However, despite sitting atop the conference standings, Penny Hardaway’s squad knows there is little room for error as the race for March Madness seeding intensifies.
The Tigers are coming off a statement win over Florida Atlantic, where they pulled away in the second half to complete the season sweep with an 84-65 victory. The win helped Memphis clinch a double bye in the AAC Tournament, ensuring they won’t have to play until the quarterfinal round on March 15. However, with teams like North Texas, UAB, and Wichita State gaining momentum, the Tigers must keep stacking wins to avoid a potential bid-stealer scenario in the conference tournament.
Next up, Memphis returns home to FedEx Forum on Wednesday, February 26, for a rematch with Rice (13-15, 4-11 AAC)—a team that nearly pulled off an upset earlier this month in Houston.
Memphis’ First Meeting With Rice: A Too-Close-For-Comfort Victory
The first matchup between these two programs on February 4 was much closer than expected, as Memphis had to survive a late surge from Rice to escape with an 86-83 road victory. PJ Haggerty led the way for Memphis with 26 points and eight rebounds, while Tyrese Hunter and PJ Carter added 19 points each.
Despite holding a 44-39 lead at halftime, Memphis allowed Rice to stay in striking distance, and costly mistakes nearly led to disaster. The Tigers missed critical free throws in the final minute, allowing the Owls to trim the lead to one point with 10 seconds remaining. Ultimately, Colby Rogers’ steal on the final possession sealed the win for Memphis.
Since that game, Rice has gone 2-4, but their recent performances indicate they can push higher-seeded opponents to the limit. Memphis must ensure they don’t overlook this rematch, especially after their hard-earned victory over FAU on Sunday.
The AAC Bid-Stealing Situation: Memphis Must Take Care of Business
While Memphis controls its destiny, the rest of the AAC is heating up, and the threat of a bid-stealer remains real. Several teams are positioning themselves to make a deep AAC Tournament run, which could cost Memphis a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament if things don’t go their way.
- North Texas (20-6, 11-3 AAC): The Mean Green have won four straight games, including a 63-44 victory over Tulsa. They are just one game behind Memphis in the standings and remain a serious threat to steal the conference title.
- UAB (18-9, 11-3 AAC): Since their 100-77 loss to Memphis, the Blazers have won six of their last seven, including a convincing 80-64 victory over Temple. Memphis and UAB meet in a crucial rematch on March 2 in Birmingham, which could determine the AAC regular-season champion.
- Wichita State (17-10, 7-7 AAC): The Shockers have quietly become one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning six straight after defeating Tulane 78-67. Their win over Memphis in overtime last Sunday was a significant resume booster, and they’re emerging as a dark-horse candidate to shake up the AAC Tournament.
- Tulane (15-12, 9-5 AAC): The Green Wave still has a path to clinch a double bye, making them a dangerous team in the tournament. However, their recent loss to Wichita State hurt their standings.
For Memphis to avoid complications, the formula remains simple: Win out, secure the AAC regular-season title, and enter the conference tournament as the undisputed top team. Dropping another game—especially to a bottom-tier team like Rice—would put their NCAA Tournament seeding in serious jeopardy.
Scouting Rice: A Dangerous Underdog?
While Rice sits near the bottom of the AAC standings, their scrappy style of play has made them a difficult opponent for multiple teams in the conference.
Record: 13-15 (4-11 AAC)
Head Coach: Rob Lanier
Recent Stretch: 2-4 in their last six games
Key Players to Watch:
- Trae Broadnax (Guard, 6’4”) – The team’s leading scorer (12.9 PPG), averaging 5.1 RPG and 5.4 APG. He had 19 points and six assists in the first meeting against Memphis.
- Jacob Dar (Guard, 6’7”) – A versatile wing who can stretch the floor. He posted 17 points and eight boards in the first matchup.
- Alem Huseinovic (Guard, 6’4”) – A sharpshooter from deep, averaging 38.0% from three-point range. If Memphis fails to close out on shooters, he can help keep Rice competitive.
Strengths:
Perimeter shooting: Rice hit 10 threes in the first meeting with Memphis.
Rebounding ability: The Owls have several physical forwards who can crash the glass.
Weaknesses:
Inconsistent defense: Rice ranks near the bottom of the AAC in defensive efficiency.
Turnovers: The Owls have struggled with ball security, leading to transition opportunities for opponents.
Keys to Victory for Memphis
Dominate the Paint – Memphis’ frontcourt duo of Dain Dainja and Moussa Cisse has been dominant in recent games. They must continue to control the boards and score efficiently inside.
Limit Turnovers – Memphis committed 15 turnovers in the first matchup. Penny Hardaway’s squad must care for the basketball and avoid giving Rice extra possessions.
Defend the Perimeter – The Owls shot 40% from three in the first game. Memphis must run shooters off the line and prevent open looks.
Get Out in Transition – Memphis plays best when they push the pace. If they can force turnovers, they can build a comfortable lead early.
Score Prediction
Memphis has rebounded well after losses this season, going 5-0 in games following a defeat. Expect the Tigers to come out motivated after the close call against Rice earlier this month and put together a more complete performance this time.
While Rice may keep things interesting early, Memphis’ depth, size, and defensive pressure should wear down the Owls in the second half.
Final Score Prediction: Memphis 85, Rice 68
With a win, Memphis will move closer to securing the AAC regular-season title while ensuring they remain in control of their NCAA Tournament fate.
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