The Memphis Tigers want to rise to even higher heights in 2024 after coming off their best season since 2019. Despite a schedule featuring three opponents that finished with 11 or more wins, the Tigers earned ten wins, nearly missing a top-25 finish. Memphis’ passing game was elite with Seth Henigan at the helm, but in this article, the latest in our position group series, I want to dive into the outlook for the Tigers’ running backs for the upcoming season.
As I mentioned, the Tigers moved the ball with extreme effectiveness through the air in 2023, but they also did a lot of damage on the ground. Blake Watson was a threat in both facets of the game, tallying over 1,100 rushing yards and nearly 500 receiving yards to 17 scores. Watson’s 1,600 scrimmage yards was good enough for ninth most in the country last year; he served as the engine of the Memphis offense that posted just shy of 40 points per game.
Watson was essentially a one-person show in the backfield, and his presence will be sorely missed now that he is a member of the Denver Broncos in the NFL. Let’s review how the running back room stacks up without him.
Current Depth Chart
- Mario Anderson
- Sutton Smith
- Brandon Thomas
To compensate for Blake Watson’s loss, the Tigers brought extra help through the Transfer Portal, adding the talented senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Anderson made his first season of significant playing time count despite playing in a miserable offense, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and compiling 700 yards on the campaign.
He is currently listed as the starter on the team’s official depth chart, with Smith as the 2nd string and Thomas predictably the third back. Looking at the other backs from last season, Brandon Thomas had very little production outside of his 9-goal line touchdowns, and Sutton Smith was marginally more productive on the ground but still not much of a factor in the offense as a whole. Smith and Thomas are going into their Junior and Senior years, respectively. While they both possess some upsides, with a much larger workload available in 2024, whether this group can compensate for the loss of Watson remains to be seen.
Strengths and Weaknesses:
The RB room is bound to function much differently than last season, with no player possessing the dual-threat capabilities that Watson, who initially started his career as a receiver, brought to the team. This game phase will be a weakness unless Smith or Anderson suddenly improve their pass-catching abilities. We may see more of a running back-by-committee situation with a heavier emphasis on pass protection than catching passes themselves. The good news with that approach is that the offensive line should stack up well in 2024.
Memphis’ line was okay in 2023, allowing 19 sacks on Henigan but also creating nice gaps for Watson to burst through. This season, Memphis is replacing both tackles and their left guard, bringing in Jaylen Nichols from South Carolina, Trent Holler from Marshall, and Keydrell Lewis from ULM, among other lineman. Hopefully, these upgrades will improve the blocking and allow Memphis’s running backs to capitalize on their speed, power, and agility strengths.
Key Players to Watch
While I would argue this running back room is weaker in pure talent than the 2023 group with Watson, it seems they have all the bases covered. Sutton Smith was a former track star in high school and brings plenty of speed to a backfield that would otherwise be lacking. Plus, his ability to make things happen in space was shown on kickoffs last year, as he took kickoff returns for an average of 24 yards a pop. Memphis should mix him in with Mario Anderson, who is fast in his own right and considerably bulkier, which should help with taking up more of the workload. Utilizing both of these backs’ strengths not only means a more dynamic offense but also that both players should be able to remain healthier and more fresh on any given play. Adding Thomas for goal-line work and short-yardage situations, which is his bread and butter, makes for a complete backfield.
Expectations for the Season
My expectations for the RB room this season are somewhat high. I expect the total rushing yards across the top three backs to stay about the same, around 1700 yards, but on slightly more carries, meaning lower efficiency. With the advantage of backs that don’t dictate play calls and having multiple capable running backs at the disposal of head coach Ryan Silverfield, the offense will flourish. However, Watson’s 6 yards per carry will be difficult to replicate.
The big difference, though, will be in the passing game. Sutton Smith has the opportunity to develop into a great security blanket for Henigan as a pass catcher out of the backfield, something he hasn’t been allowed to do at the collegiate level yet.
As a projection, Anderson posting 1,000 yards and Smith with 600 of his own feels reasonable. I’d also expect Smith to add another 30 catches on the year since he will likely be playing more on passing downs due to his run-after-catch ability.
Mario Anderson is the front-runner to dominate the backfield in touches and is the most likely back to replicate the production of Blake Watson last year, but distributing the carries more equally among the backfield could be another appealing option and potentially a more effective strategy.
Memphis will return to another potent run game in 2024; that’s just a fact. With what might be an even easier schedule – FSU being their only opponent ranked in the top 25 last season – Memphis could be in for another big year. When this running game is cooking, the entire offense goes, so expect another big year from Seth Henigan to follow suit. If the Tigers can average 40 points per game for another season, they can make another run at an AAC title.
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