Memphis Overlooked in NCAA Seeding Preview – Here’s Why It Might Not Matter

The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee released its annual early look at the projected top-four seeds for each region, and for Memphis, the message was clear: they have more work to do. The Tigers were left off the list of 16 teams despite a strong resume and a recent surge in the rankings. While some fans and analysts were disappointed, others see it as nothing more than motivation for Penny Hardaway’s squad to continue stacking wins.

But how big of a deal is this? Should Memphis be worried about its placement? Or is this just a temporary snub that can be corrected in the coming weeks? Let’s deeply dive into what this means for the Tigers, why they were left off the list, and how they can still make their case for a top-four seed by Selection Sunday.

Breaking Down the Selection Committee’s Early Top 16

On Saturday, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee released its annual preview, ranking the top 16 teams that would currently receive a top-four seed in each region. Here’s how the selections broke down:

South Region:

• Alabama (1)
• Texas A&M (2)
• Wisconsin (3)
• Texas Tech (4)

Midwest Region:

• Auburn (1)
• Purdue (2)
• Iowa State (3)
• Kansas (4)

West Region:

• Florida (1)
• Houston (2)
• Kentucky (3)
• Michigan (4)

East Region:

• Duke (1)
• Tennessee (2)
• Arizona (3)
• St. John’s (4)

These rankings reflect the committee’s current assessment of teams based on their overall resumes, including quality wins, losses, and advanced metrics such as the NCAA’s NET rankings, KenPom, and strength of schedule.

Memphis, however, was nowhere to be found.

Why Was Memphis Left Out?

The Tigers have built a solid case as one of the top teams in the country. They currently sit atop the American Athletic Conference standings with a 10-1 record in conference play and a 20-4 overall record. Wins over Michigan State, Clemson, Ole Miss, and defending national champion UConn bolster their resume.

So why weren’t they included? The answer likely lies in a few key factors:

1. The Arkansas State Loss
   • Memphis suffered a Quad 3 loss early in the season to Arkansas State, a blemish on their record that has lingered in the eyes of the selection committee. In NCAA tournament seeding, bad losses can weigh heavier than big wins.
2. Temple Defeat on the Road
   • Another game that hurt the Tigers was their loss to Temple. While Memphis avenged that loss recently, the committee likely still views it as a stain on their resume.
3. Strength of Schedule Perception
   • Unlike teams in the SEC, Big Ten, or Big 12, Memphis doesn’t have a long list of Quad 1 victories due to the overall strength of the AAC. While the Tigers dominated non-conference play, their current schedule doesn’t present as many opportunities to pick up high-value wins.
4. The Eye Test vs. Metrics
   • There’s a stark contrast between how Memphis looks on the court and how they rank in key analytics. Penny Hardaway’s squad passes the “eye test,” but advanced metrics like KenPom and the NET rankings still place them slightly behind some of the teams that made the list.

Why Memphis Fans Shouldn’t Worry

While being left out of the early top 16 might feel like a slight, the reality is that it doesn’t carry much long-term significance. The committee’s preview is a snapshot of where teams stand today, not an official ruling on where they will be seeded in March.

Here’s why Memphis fans should remain optimistic:

1. A Strong Finish Can Change Everything
   • The Tigers have six games in the regular season, including a crucial rematch against UAB on March 2. If they win, claim the AAC regular-season title, and make a deep conference tournament run, they could easily climb into a No. 3 or 4 seed.
2. Seeding Doesn’t Always Dictate Tournament Success
   • While having a higher seed improves the path to the Final Four, history has shown that teams seeded outside the top four can still make deep runs. The key is matchups, not numbers next to a team’s name.
3. Memphis is Still Projected as a Top 5-Seed.
   • While not in the committee’s preview, Memphis remains a projected No. 5 seed in most Bracketology updates. That’s not far from where they want to be, and it still positions them as a dangerous team heading into the tournament.
4. The Committee’s Final Decisions Can Be Unpredictable
   • March Madness is called “madness” for a reason. Upsets happen, teams rise and fall in the final weeks, and conference tournament performances can heavily influence final seeding. Memphis still controls its destiny.

What Memphis Needs to Do Next

If Penny Hardaway and the Tigers want to break into the top-four seeding conversation, their path is clear:

1. Win the Remaining Regular-Season Games
   • The Tigers must finish strong. Winning out would put them at 26-4 entering the AAC Tournament, an impressive record that could force the committee to reconsider their placement.
2. Claim the AAC Regular Season Title
   • Memphis currently leads the conference, and winning the AAC outright would solidify their resume.
3. Dominate the AAC Tournament
   • A conference tournament title would eliminate doubts about Memphis’ legitimacy as a top-four seed.
4. Continue Passing the Eye Test
   • The committee acknowledges analytics, but strong performances in the final stretch will leave a lasting impression. Memphis needs to win not only convincingly but also.

While being left off the Selection Committee’s early top 16 may feel like a snub, it is far from a death sentence. Memphis has ample time to improve its standing, and its fate remains in its own hands.

The Tigers must focus on what they can control—winning basketball games. If they do that, come Selection Sunday, they may find themselves right where they want to be.

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