Two longtime AFC North rivals face off in the opening round of the NFL playoffs when the Pittsburgh Steelers head on the road to face the Baltimore Ravens. The matchup could add another chapter to an already storied rivalry between the two franchises. Since 1996, the Ravens and Steelers have faced each other in the playoffs on four separate occasions, with Pittsburgh winning three out of the four meetings. During the regular season, there was a split between the two teams, with Baltimore and Pittsburgh winning on their home turf.
With divisional pride and a ticket to the next round of the playoffs on the line, both teams bring compelling storylines into this high-stakes game. The Ravens are riding a four-game win streak and have solidified themselves as one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, while the Steelers limp into the postseason on a four-game losing streak, struggling to find consistency.
Here’s a detailed preview of this playoff clash, including key matchups, team dynamics, and a final score prediction.
Tale of Two Teams
Baltimore Ravens: The Complete Contender
The Ravens enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the league. They boast a four-game win streak and a balanced roster that excels on both sides. Lamar Jackson is the heart of Baltimore’s offense, leading an attack that combines explosive passing plays with a dynamic ground game. Second-year wideout Zay Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews provide Jackson with reliable targets, while new addition Derrick Henry anchors a potent rushing attack. In 2024, the former Titans running back showed no signs of a decline when he rushed for over 1,900 yards and 16 touchdowns.
Defensively, the Ravens are a force. Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith, and Patrick Queen headline a unit that is aggressive, opportunistic, and capable of closing out games with turnovers. Baltimore’s Week 16 victory over Pittsburgh showcased their ability to dominate late, as Humphrey’s pick-six in the fourth quarter sealed a 34-17 win.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Grit and Defense
The Steelers enter the wild-card round with Russell Wilson under center and Justin Fields as his backup. While Wilson provides veteran leadership, the Steelers’ offense has been inconsistent throughout the season. Their struggles have been compounded during their current four-game skid, where they’ve lost by an average of 13 points per game.
Pittsburgh’s defense remains its greatest strength, particularly against Lamar Jackson. The Steelers have neutralized Jackson better than any other team this season, holding him to two of his worst performances according to QB+ grading (D and D+). Historically, Pittsburgh has often been a thorn in Jackson’s side, with four of his eight worst career QB+ performances coming against this defense.
Key Matchups to Watch
Russell Wilson vs. Ravens Secondary
Wilson’s veteran savvy will be tested against a Ravens secondary led by Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams. While Wilson struggled in Week 16, throwing a costly pick-six, his ability to avoid mistakes and manage the game will be critical to Pittsburgh’s chances of an upset.
Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers Defense
The Steelers’ defense, led by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, has consistently stifled Jackson’s creativity. Pittsburgh will look to pressure Jackson and force him into mistakes. Jackson’s ability to extend plays and avoid turnovers will be a determining factor in Baltimore’s success.
Steelers’ Rushing Attack vs. Ravens Front Seven
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren must succeed against Baltimore’s stout front seven, anchored by Roquan Smith. Establishing the run will be crucial for Pittsburgh to sustain drives and keep Baltimore’s offense off the field.
Red Zone Efficiency
The Ravens boast one of the best red-zone offenses in the league, thanks to creative play-calling from Todd Monken. On the other hand, Pittsburgh must capitalize on their red-zone opportunities to keep pace. Settling for field goals will not cut it against a Ravens team that excels at turning red-zone trips into touchdowns.
X-Factors
Pittsburgh Steelers: T.J. Watt
Watt’s ability to disrupt Jackson’s timing and force turnovers will be critical. If Watt can generate pressure and force Jackson into mistakes, Pittsburgh could swing the momentum in their favor.
Baltimore Ravens: Zay Flowers
The Ravens’ 2023 first-round selection has been a revelation for Baltimore, providing Jackson with a reliable playmaker who can create explosive plays. Flowers’ ability to stretch the field and convert on key downs could be the difference in a tightly contested game.
Betting Trends and Prediction
This game presents one of the most intriguing betting dilemmas of the wild-card weekend. On paper, the Ravens appear to have a clear advantage. They are superior on offense and defense and have played a tougher schedule. Their four-game win streak and Pittsburgh’s four-game losing streak add to the perception that Baltimore should win comfortably.
However, AFC North matchups are rarely straightforward. In Week 16, the Ravens eventually pulled away for a 34-17 victory, but the game was much closer through three quarters. Divisional familiarity and Pittsburgh’s defensive success against Jackson suggest this game could be more competitive than the betting line (Ravens -9.5) indicates.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Steelers 20
It’s difficult for any team to defeat an opponent twice out of three matchups in a season, especially if they are members of the same division. But I don’t see the Steelers reversing their fortunes this week against the Ravens. Russell Wilson has struggled mightily since losing their Week 15 matchup to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The defeat to Philadelphia paved the way for their four-game losing streak. The option of benching Wilson and inserting Justin Fields into the starting lineup is there, but the move may not make that much of a difference. Right now, Baltimore’s head and shoulders are better than the Steelers. While Pittsburgh’s defense will keep the game close, their offensive struggles and inability to capitalize on opportunities will ultimately be their downfall. Baltimore advances to the next round, solidifying their status as a top contender in the AFC.
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