The NFC South division is one of the most intriguing in the NFL right now. Over the past couple of seasons, the title has been right there for the taking, and not a single team has truly been able to dominate on their way to the playoffs.
Tampa Bay clinched the division three consecutive times, starting in 2021. However, their performance has waned since then. In 2022, despite a losing record (8-9), the Buccaneers still led the division. Their 2023 record of 9-8 showed marginal improvement.
No team has won double digit games in the past two seasons combined, begging the question as to which of these franchises is going to go out and make themselves the dominant force in the NFC South?
Each is in the midst of their own rebranding journey, with mixed results.
The Carolina Panthers are attempting to rebuild around Bryce Young, which landed them the worst record in football and just two wins in the 2023 season. Now under new management with former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, perhaps the offense will look a little different in 2024, but we’ll get into that a little later on in today’s post.
Atlanta have been the big spenders of the division over the past couple of springs, rebuilding the defense in 2023 with major additions such as Jessie Bates and David Onyemata. Then in 2024 they made perhaps the boldest attempt to steam ahead by signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million deal in free agency. The roster looks good, but once again, under new management with Raheem Morris taking charge.
New Orleans opted to stick with head coach Dennis Allen going forward, despite underwhelming results via the Derek Carr experiment. They tried their own Kirk Cousins type move in signing Carr, only to stumble to a 9-8 record having found winning form a little too late in the year. That said, perhaps the signs were there that things were beginning to come together, with impressive results expected in 2024.
Then finally, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who seem to have found an unlikely hero in quarterback Baker Mayfield. They held on to star receiver Mike Evans, and boasted one of the league’s fastest rising running backs last season in the productive Rachaad White. With Dave Canales gone, the questions center around what that offense might look like going into a new season under Liam Coen.
All four teams have made significant additions over the past couple of seasons, so understanding how they stack up against one another and where each team might be able to earn an advantage is going to be crucial.
The Carolina Panthers traded for Pittsburgh star Diontae Johnson, as well as trading up one spot to the final pick of the 2024 draft first round to draft receiver Xavier Legette. Those are significant additions to a lackluster offense, and something the other division rivals will need to be wary of.
Atlanta’s offense may look completely different under the command of Kirk Cousins, and what about the addition of Michael Penix Jr. in what was clearly the off-season’s largest surprise? The Falcons are a complete wildcard right now, but appear to be building to try and make a run.
Team by Team Analysis
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints roster boasts several playmakers offensively, and a wealth of experience on defense. The focus on strengthening the offensive line was crucial, especially given the troubling circumstances with Ryan Ramcyzk’s knee long term.
Let’s break down their free agency activity and the draft, before discussing the offense and defense as a unit.
2024 Free Agency
The New Orleans Saints have been in salary cap trouble for a long time now, restricting their ability to navigate the free agency market as freely as the rival Atlanta Falcons.
New Orleans lost defensive end Malcolm Roach to the Denver Broncos, with depth pieces in Lonnie Johnson and Isaac Yiadom (CB), and outside linebacker Zach Baun signing elsewhere. The key loss in my opinion is that of offensive lineman Andrus Peat, who filled in at left tackle for most of last season following the underwhelming performance of Trevor Penning.
Then in return, they spent the bulk of their little available cap on a one-year deal for Chase Young, signing for $13 million.
Young spent the latter part of last season with the San Francisco 49ers, having fallen out of favor in Washington. He was traded following an up and down start to his career, marred by injuries with the Commanders. That said, the former number two overall pick still has plenty of potential, but needs to show far better effort consistently if he wants to reignite his career, and has to have better discipline as a run defender.
The only other Saints additions of note were minimal deals for former Cowboys and Dolphins receiver Cedrick Wilson and former Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay Jr. Neither are costing more than three million dollars against the cap in 2024, but could provide valuable depth.
2024 NFL Draft
The Saints only made two selections in the first four rounds, with a large gap between their picks in rounds one and two, and later picks in round five and beyond. That meant getting two immediate impact players was going to be really important, and it seems that they did just that with versatile offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga and cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry.
McKinstry serves as a talented boundary corner coming out of Alabama, with great instincts and man coverage skills that will serve in the Saints defense. Fuaga was a two-year starter at right tackle while playing at Oregon State, but could feature at either tackle spot long term, or play guard early in his career.
He may be called upon to take over at left tackle if Trevor Penning performs poorly again this season. With Andrus Peat gone, the Saints could be scrambling for options there on the offensive line.
New Orleans did add quarterback Spencer Rattler in round five, a quarterback who has all the tools but failed to find consistency in college. They picked linebacker Jaylan Ford out of Texas in round five, and defensive tackle Khristian Boyd out of Northern Iowa in round six, somebody I was far higher on than his eventual landing spot.
Offensive Summary
The New Orleans Saints offense may finally move forward without Michael Thomas in 2024, with the former All Pro’s career having been dented so heavily by injuries. Thomas is now a free agent and currently without a team, which does mean perhaps he returns before the season, but right now it seems unlikely.
That means the primary role falls entirely on Chris Olave, who could be poised for a major breakout year in 2024. The former Buckeye has proven his consistency with back-to-back 1,000+ yard seasons to start his NFL career, despite playing in less than ideal circumstances a lot of the time.
I liked the supporting role of Rashid Shaheed last season, and late round selection A.T. Perry showed flashes of potential as he worked his way into the rotation late in the year.
If Olave can provide what other teams have production wise and take that step from his current level to the realms of Ceedee Lamb or Amon-Ra St. Brown, this offense could take a quantum leap.
In order to have that maximum efficiency offensively the Saints will need to perform better in the run game, having featured in the bottom third in the league last season. Too often things fell on the passing game in less-than-ideal down and distance situations, while Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams combined for just six touchdowns on the ground all season.
The offensive line has to be far better this year, and I didn’t see the Saints going in any other direction other than drafting a tackle in the first round. We’ll now see how the line shapes up, with various questions around the health of Ramczyk and performance level of Trevor Penning playing a factor.
Defensive Summary
The New Orleans Saints defense has been one of the strongest in football for years, but last season it was certainly performing at a lower clip than we’ve grown to expect. The interior of the line performed poorly, and we’ll need to see more from Bryan Breese going into year two.
Cameron Jordan isn’t getting any younger, and had just three sacks last season. Carl Granderson stepped up and led the team with nine, while Demario Davis provided seven from the linebacker spot. Chase Young should be able to play a key role in that department in 2024.
New Orleans certainly has depth on the defensive line, and a good rotation because of it, but they’ll need those players to be more effective this season, particularly in defending the run and plugging the middle.
The secondary looks really nice with the addition of Kool Aid McKinstry in the draft, now having great depth at corner going into the season. Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo form one of the league’s best duos, with Alontae Taylor playing a strong role in the slot. McKinstry will rotate in, and that’s a fine luxury to have for New Orleans this season.
I do feel that perhaps they need a little help at safety. Tyrann Mathieu is a great leader and does a fine job playing downhill against the run, but in coverage they could use a free safety who can play sideline to sideline and protect the defense deep third.
Overall, this was a group that underperformed last season, but they have the experience and the depth to be one of the better units in the NFL, and certainly the best group in the NFC South.
Atlanta Falcons
Despite the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning the division the past two seasons, Atlanta could be the Saints biggest threat in 2024.
Over the past couple of seasons, they’ve invested heavily on both sides of the ball, and at least on paper their roster looks ready to compete this season. The addition of Kirk Cousins appears to be the missing piece, with failed quarterback experiments last season via Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke foiling Atlanta’s chances of making the playoffs.
Offensive Summary
Their offense now looks like one of the better units in football, but only if guys can step up. The belief is that both Drake London and Kyle Pitts are elite offensive playmakers, and they’ve certainly had their moments, but for the most part we haven’t yet seen enough from either of them.
We’ll find out this season if that is in fact because of quarterback play, or if they’re not quite the talent they’ve been hyped up to be.
The same can’t really be said for Bijan Robinson, who looks the real deal. He’s one of the most gifted runners in the game, and paired with Tyler Allgeier Atlanta have the ability to run the football down the throats of their opponents all season long.
The Falcons have one of the most solid offensive lines in the game, and will now stand Kirk Cousins behind it as he attempts to bring the franchise a championship. They added Michael Penix Jr., but unless Cousins performs horribly, I doubt we’ll see much of him for at least two seasons.
Cousins has proven he can be a top 10 quarterback in the NFL time and time again, especially as he matured in Minnesota. The problem is overcoming the obstacles in the postseason, but the Falcons have certainly given him enough talent to work with to make it happen.
Key additions in Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore via free agency bulk out what was a pretty anemic wide receiver room, and the offense looks ready to roll.
Defensive Summary
Much was made of the Falcons decision to draft a quarterback for the future over adding any key pieces defensively in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. The likes of Dallas Turner and multiple cornerback’s names were thrown around, but Atlanta instead opted for Michael Penix Jr.
So, do they have a defense that didn’t need a first-round draft pick in order to compete with the big teams this season?
They might not have attacked the defense with their first-round pick, but they did with the ensuing four picks all the way through round five. Atlanta drafted Ruke Orhorhoro out of Clemson in round two, before getting edge rusher Bralen Trice in round three, defensive tackle Brandon Dorlus in round four and linebacker JD Bertrand in the fifth.
Paired with the experience the Falcons have acquired in recent years in free agency, the unit looks pretty good. Their weaknesses factor in at edge rush, without a proven star threatening the quarterback just yet, plus a lack of depth in the secondary.
A.J. Terrell is the star, but teams have been able to pick on the Falcons on his opposite side. They didn’t draft a single cornerback, and it still feels like a weakness on the roster as of right now.
Carolina Panthers
Last season the Carolina Panthers weren’t a threat to anybody but themselves. It is largely believed that owner David Tepper had too much input in the decision to draft Bryce Young, while Frank Reich and his staff preferred the prospect of C.J. Stroud with the number one pick.
It was doomed from the beginning, and Reich and co. were let go midseason after an abysmal start to the league campaign.
Bryce Young struggled tremendously, his confidence shot towards the end of the year, and it looked largely like the offense had given up entirely in the final weeks of the season.
This off-season it was crucial that they found a coaching staff capable of restoring Bryce Young’s confidence in his own ability, as well as prioritizing protecting him with the offensive line, and giving him some actual talent to work with at wide receiver.
Largely, they’ve done that, but it doesn’t feel like enough yet to compete with the other three teams’ offensive units.
Offensive Breakdown
Bryce Young’s performance last season was horrible, some of it his own fault, some not so much. The offensive line was dreadful, and they made a statement by addressing it head on in free agency.
Between former Miami Dolphins guard Robert Hunt and former Seahawk Damien Lewis, the Panthers committed $153,000,000 to two offensive guards. Both got paid handsomely, and will now come in to help form a far less breakable wall in front of the franchise quarterback. On top of that, they added former Packer tackle Yosh Nijman on a two-year deal.
Only the New York Giants allowed more sacks per game, and with Bryce Young’s size and stature among the smallest in the league, it feels like it’s only a matter of time before he gets badly hurt under those circumstances.
The poor line combined with a complete lack of receivers who could create separation made for a disastrous year. A 33-year-old Adam Thielen was about the only reliable option on the field, while the likes of DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo all underwhelmed.
Carolina responded by trading for disgruntled Steelers wideout Diontae Johnson, and drafting South Carolina breakout Xavier Legette with the final pick of the first round.
Johnson is a proven commodity in the league and a great route runner, while Legette brings some size and speed to the unit via the draft.
Concerns over Legette’s inability to break out until his fifth and final year of college rang around the scouting process this year, but the young receiver has been on such a troubling journey in his life that perhaps it took a little time for it to all come together on the football field.
On top of adding receivers, Dave Canales and his staff strengthened the running back room with Jonathon Brooks out of Texas, who was largely considered the best back in the draft. He’ll likely claim the RB1 spot early on, while Miles Sanders quickly fell out of favor having landed with the Panthers last season in free agency.
Now it all sits on Bryce Young’s shoulders. He could surprise many in 2024, but there’ll certainly be far less excuses for him if he doesn’t. He should now have a better run game, far better protection and some talent to throw to. The former Alabama QB now needs to put it all together, and in a hurry.
Defensive Breakdown
The Carolina Panthers defense looks to me like the weakest in the division. They lost a lot of pieces in free agency, and the promising core they once had is now all but gone.
Safety Jeremy Chinn signed with Washington, Frankie Luvu went with him, and Yetur Gross-Matos headed to San Francisco. Shaq Griffin signed with Minnesota, C.J. Henderson went to Houston and Vonn Bell went back to the Bengals.
Derrick Brown is their most disruptive player, and the Panthers have committed to surrounding him with veterans in the hope he’ll flourish. Shaq Thompson remains the veteran presence, with Josey Jewell signing in free agency to play alongside him at linebacker.
Carolina brought in A’Shawn Robinson and Jadeveon Clowney to shore up the defensive line, with Clowney having a major bounce back year in 2023 with the Baltimore Ravens.
Collectively, it just looks like a very underwhelming group, and it’s going to take time for all of the random additions to come together and form a close-knit unit. It’s a little concerning for a Panthers team that couldn’t keep the offense on the field last season, to consider the possibility that the defense now regresses in 2024.
To stand any chance against the likes of Chris Olave in New Orleans or Mike Evans in Tampa Bay, the Panthers will need former first rounder Jaycee Horn to stay healthy. He featured in just six games in 2023, and without him an already weak looking secondary looks even worse.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have claimed the NFC South title the last two seasons, but almost by default. Winning nine games doesn’t exactly scream Super Bowl contender, and they too will now need to improve on their previous years resume if they want to remain competitive.
The Bucs had one of the best run defenses in football in 2023, allowing less than 95 yards a game throughout the season. That put them in the top four in the NFL, and proved to be enough when paired with Baker Mayfield’s offense to land them in the playoffs.
Now they’ll look to build on that progress having signed Mayfield to a long-term extension worth $111 million over the next three seasons.
Offensive Breakdown
Mike Evans was one of the best receivers in football in 2023, once again proving himself to be among the league’s very elite throughout his career. He’s now the first player in NFL history to manage 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons, a remarkable record of consistency and production.
Baker Mayfield quickly found him to be his favorite target, and a dangerous one on one threat down the field. Between him and Chris Godwin, they managed over 2,200 yards in 2023, but will now have to reconfigure their offensive production without coordinator Dave Canales.
Canales had a great offense to showcase last year, including the impressive usage of running back Rachaad White. The Bucs back featured among the top five in receptions amongst running backs last season, which could now translate over to the Panthers offense with Canales as the head coach.
Tampa Bay have faced turnover with the offensive line in recent years. Alex Cappa went to the Bengals in 2022, and center Ryan Jensen retired this offseason.
The new look line will have to quickly figure itself out, expected to see rookie Graham Barton assume Jensen’s position at center. They paid Ben Brederson to play guard in free agency, forming a new look line in front of Baker Mayfield.
Tampa Bay drafted both wide receiver Jalen McMillan and running back Bucky Irving in round three and four respectively, both of whom could add a lot of value in rotation moving forward.
Defensive Breakdown
Tampa Bay kept their prestigious run defense together for the most part going into the 2024 season, except for Devin White at linebacker. He signed a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles, breaking up a long term partnership in Tampa with Lavonte David.
The Bucs are lacking significant depth at corner, which could prove a problem against three teams with improved wide receiver rooms in the division. They did bring Jordan Whitehead back after a short stint with the New York Jets, pairing with Antoine Winfield Jr at safety.
Todd Bowles has always managed to field an impressive defense, but I do wonder how things will look without the depth of the other franchises in the NFC South.
Chris Braswell should come in and make a near immediate impact off the edge, proving a nice fit in the Buccaneers front seven and great value for a second-round draft pick.
Keep an eye on Tykee Smith too, who once looked like one of the best safeties in college football, before an injury slowed his progress as a transfer to the Georgia Bulldogs. Talent wise, he has it all, and could prove superb value in the third round.
Head-to-Head Matchups
The biggest head-to-head for the Saints in 2024 will be with Atlanta. The two intense rivals will be battling it out to contend with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the division title.
If the Bucs underperform in 2024, which they could, the winner of those head to heads between the Saints and Falcons could prove the difference in winning the division.
Saints vs. Falcons Matchup
This might be the biggest challenge the Saints face defensively, especially if the pieces on the defensive line are unable to develop as needed. The Falcons boast the best run game in the division, and could comfortably control the possession with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier wearing out a defense.
Kirk Cousins has enough talent around him to win this division, so the Saints will need the likes of Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo to take away the key threats of that offense if they want to compete.
On the flipside, Derek Carr and Chris Olave should be able to dominate the Falcons secondary. The question is just whether New Orleans have enough depth to produce offensively outside of Olave as WR1.
Saints vs. Panthers Matchup
Carolina’s new and very expensive offensive line is expected to far better protect Bryce Young. He has a much better interior, which again could prove problematic for a Saints interior defensive line that has struggled to find consistency.
Jonathan Brooks will be back healthy and ready to go for his rookie season, and I’d expect to see him quickly start to find snaps as the primary running back in Dave Canales offense. Considering what we saw with Rachaad White last season, targets for the running back in Carolina are to be expected, which will mean the Saints linebacker unit needs to be alert and able to cover that threat repeatedly.
New Orleans will have a completely new look offense to contend with, but Bryce Young’s ability is still going to be efficiency at short to intermediate yardage. If the Saints can condense the field and make life difficult for the young quarterback, these are games they should be winning in 2024.
Offensively, New Orleans should annihilate the Panthers defense this year. It looks weak, and the Saints are far too talented on that side of the football to falter against the division’s weakest defense. The Panthers defensive line has the experience to challenge the Saints new look o-line, but ultimately if they can get the ball out and find open receivers, Dennis Allen’s team should be able to hang 35+ on the Panthers.
Saints vs. Buccaneers Matchup
The Bucs embarrassed the Saints the first time around last season, winning 26-9 while holding Derek Carr to 127 passing yards and three field goals for the offense.
Later in the season on New Years Eve, the Saints got their own back with a very efficient performance from Carr and a 23-13 win while leading for all four quarters.
This year, it’ll need to be that second performance that shows up offensively, and not the first that had very little answers for Todd Bowles defense.
The depth at wide receiver is once again a factor for the Saints, especially with the talent the Bucs have when it comes to putting points on the board.
Much like the Falcons, the Saints matchup with the Bucs could decide the division and a home playoff game. So those two results will be crucial for both sides.
Key Players to Watch
Atlanta
Bijan Robinson
I expect to see the Atlanta Falcons unleash Bijan Robinson this season. He had over 1,300 total yards in 2023 despite being utilized in many strange ways as part of Arthur Smith’s offense. This year, he should take a huge step forward and the Saints will need to be ready for it.
The Falcons’ sturdy offensive line paired with Bijan’s impressive ability to break away in the open field is a little concerning. New Orleans’ run defense was poor on multiple occasions last season, and if Bijan takes over a game it could prove the difference.
Carolina
Derrick Brown
Derrick Brown will lead the Panthers defensive unit, and he will be the key threat to a productive day of offense for Derek Carr and co. He got better and better in 2023, but the Saints largely kept him in check in the two matchups last year.
He proved problematic for several teams later in the season, with seven interior pressures against the Bucs in one game and five in the other. He had five against Dallas too, and with the likes of A’Shawn Robinson and Jadeveon Clowney added in free agency, the defensive line is the most threatening unit of the Panthers defense.
Tampa Bay
Mike Evans
This one won’t be a surprise, but for the Saints to beat out the Bucs this or any year, they need to contain Mike Evans.
He and Marshon Lattimore have a storied history of scrapping on the field, and that matchup is always must watch tv for the neutrals.
Evans always seems to reach his fiery peak against the Saints, having been ejected twice in his career in a game against New Orleans. Marshon Lattimore and the Bucs receiver are always at each other’s throats, and the Saints will want their star corner to lock him down in 2024.
Strategic Considerations
vs. Falcons
Putting pressure on Kirk Cousins is essential here, especially as he has at least four targets offensively that could cause problems for the Saints. Even if Marshon Lattimore is on Drake London and Kyle Pitts is occupied over the middle, Darnell Mooney is a valuable number two, and Rondale Moore is a threat out of the slot.
All of that is without even considering Bijan Robinson’s ability out of the backfield, and if Cousins can swing the ball out to him towards the sidelines, Bijan can make a man miss as well as anybody in the NFL.
New Orleans’ defensive line has to disrupt the rhythm and timing of that offense. If they don’t, Kirk Cousins can work his way down the field and put up a lot of points.
While the Saints have some offensive talent of their own, I don’t fancy them in a shootout with the talent of the Falcons offense this year.
vs. Panthers
Dominate with aggressive offense from the very first quarter.
For the Saints, taking a double-digit lead over Carolina is essential. Dennis Allen can be a little conservative at times, but he can’t do that here against the Panthers.
Make Bryce Young and his new group play from behind, forcing dangerous throws against the Saints secondary, leading to turnovers.
You can’t allow Dave Canales to execute his game plan for four quarters. You need to force them off schedule and force them into long down and distance situations.
Carolina might win a few more games this year, but they strike me as a team that needs to control the pace of a game and dominate possession in order to do so.
Attack their weak secondary, get the run game going early outside the tackles and put up 17+ points early.
vs. Buccaneers
Do as you have always done against Mike Evans and the Bucs receiving group. It’s disruptive, frustrating and ultimately always seems to throw the Tampa Bay star off his game.
Evans hasn’t had a touchdown against the Saints in five games, which is a pretty impressive resume for the Saints’ defense, considering Evans’ dominance in the league.
He’s only surpassed 100+ yards against New Orleans once in his career, and that was all the way back in 2018. They’ve done a great job of containing him and in doing so, give themselves a great shot at pulling out a win.
Tampa Bay might have won the division last season, but the Saints beat them late in the year, and the two rosters are on a level playing field in 2024.
Conclusion
The New Orleans Saints can go out and win the NFC South in 2024. When you break down each roster, there are clear weaknesses in each of them, and multiple secondary’s that Derek Carr should be able to exploit given his experience.
Atlanta has a couple of Pro Bowlers in their secondary, but they’re missing depth and a starting corner, while the Panthers and Bucs both lack depth in their units too. Particularly against Carolina, Carr and the Saints offense need to prove far more effective in 2024. Rarely did we see them go out and blow a team away in 2023, and that should be happening more this season if the offensive line can hold up.
That’s my key issue with the Saints this season. Is that offensive line going to be able to survive the year and do enough to allow the offense to work effectively as a contender in the NFC South?
Atlanta has gotten a lot stronger and added far more talent than the Saints could during the offseason. Beating them in the first matchup of the season would make a real statement, and the Saints are certainly capable of doing so.
Ultimately, it’s a division that will be largely unpredictable in 2024. What happens if the Carolina Panthers surge offensively under Dave Canales? It’s certainly plausible.
For the most part, I’d expect a three-horse race between the Saints, Falcons and Bucs once again, at least for this year. Who wins the division will be a wide-open conversation until at least late December. It’s going to be a thrilling year in the NFC South.
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