The NFC South has been a rollercoaster of unpredictability, often dubbed the NFL’s “Mad Max division” for its chaotic mix of promise and pitfalls. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have dominated, clinching four straight division titles from 2021 to 2024, but their playoff runs have fizzled out early. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and New Orleans Saints have cycled through rebuilding and retooling, each grappling with quarterback uncertainties and defensive woes.
As the 2025 season looms, each team faces a defining question that could shape their path to the NFC South title or another year of frustration. From Tampa’s quest for NFC contender status to the Saints’ search for a franchise quarterback, here’s a deep dive into the biggest question facing each NFC South team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Can Baker Mayfield Elevate the Bucs to Perennial NFC Contenders?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have owned the NFC South, securing four consecutive division titles from 2021 to 2024, including a 10-7 campaign in 2024. Since Baker Mayfield took over for Tom Brady in 2023, he’s revitalized his career, earning Pro Bowl nods in both seasons and joining Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Burrow with 41 touchdowns and a 71.4% completion rate in 2024. Yet, the Bucs’ postseason story is one of near-misses: a divisional-round exit to Detroit in 2023 and a wild-card loss to the Washington Commanders in 2024 exposed a shaky pass defense (29th, allowing 241.1 yards per game).
For 2025, the question is whether Mayfield can transform Tampa into a perennial NFC contender, not just a division winner. The offense remains a juggernaut, ranking third in total yards (399.5 per game) and fourth in scoring (29.5) in 2024, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and rookie Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State’s all-time receptions leader) forming a top-tier receiving corps. The new offensive coordinator, Josh Grizzard, who was promoted from passing game coordinator, promises continuity despite Liam Coen’s departure to Jacksonville. Defensively, the Bucs addressed their pass-rush woes by signing Haason Reddick and drafting cornerbacks Benjamin Morrison and Jacob Parrish to improve a secondary that struggled in 2024.
However, challenges loom. Godwin’s recovery from a gruesome ankle injury and tackle and Tristan Wirfs’ knee surgery could strain early-season depth. Working with his eighth coordinator in eight NFL seasons, Mayfield must maintain his elite production against a schedule featuring early tests against Houston, Philadelphia, and Detroit.
Atlanta Falcons: Can Michael Penix Jr. Take the Next Step in His Development?
The Atlanta Falcons are betting on Michael Penix Jr. to unlock the potential of the NFC South’s most talented roster. Drafted eighth overall in 2024 despite Kirk Cousins’ $180M contract, Penix took over as QB1 after Cousins’ late-season struggles (16 interceptions, co-led NFL). Penix’s three starts in Weeks 16-18 of 2024 showed flashes—737 passing yards, eighth-most in the league—but his 58% completion rate and 3:3 TD-to-INT ratio suggest he’s a work in progress. The question for 2025 is whether Penix can elevate Atlanta’s offense to overtake Tampa Bay.
Related: Atlanta Falcons 2025 Season Preview
The Falcons’ offense is loaded with a top 10 offensive line, running back Bijan Robinson (1,103 yards in 2024), and receivers Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Coordinator Zac Robinson, who led Atlanta to sixth in total yards in 2024, returns to guide Penix. Defensively, new coordinator Jeff Ulbrich’s 3-4 scheme, bolstered by first-round edge rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., aims to fix a pass rush that ranked 31st in sacks (31) in 2024. Safety Jessie Bates III and rookie Xavier Watts add secondary strength.
Yet, Penix’s growth is critical. His college tape at Washington showed elite arm talent, but his 78.6 passer rating in 2024 NFL starts raises concerns about short-area accuracy. Atlanta’s early schedule against teams such as the Buccaneers, Vikings, and the Commanders tests Penix against playoff-caliber defenses. If he improves to 3,800 yards and a 20:8 TD-to-INT ratio, Atlanta could hit 9-10 wins and steal the division. Failure to progress risks another 8-9 season, with Cousins’ $10M backup role looming as a distraction.
New Orleans Saints: Is the Franchise Quarterback on the Roster?
The New Orleans Saints face one of the biggest questions heading into the 2025 campaign: Is their franchise quarterback on the current roster? Since Drew Brees retired after 2020, the Saints have cycled through stopgaps, with Derek Carr’s abrupt retirement in 2025 leaving a void. The QB room—second-round rookie Tyler Shough (Louisville), Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener, and undrafted rookie Hunter Decker—competes in training camp to claim the starting role. With a 5-12 record in 2024 and a new regime establishing their foundation, the Saints are in rebuilding mode, making this decision pivotal.
Shough, 26 by September 2025, is the favorite, bringing seven years of college experience (3,195 yards, 23 TDs at Louisville). Rattler’s 0-6 record as a 2024 starter is misleading, as he faced playoff teams without Chris Olave, but his 59.8% completion rate needs work. Haener and Decker are long shots, with Haener’s 2024 relief appearances (128 yards, 1 TD) showing limited upside. New coach Kellen Moore, who led a top 10 offense with the Eagles in 2024, offers hope, with Alvin Kamara, Olave, and Rashid Shaheed as weapons.
However, a tough midseason stretch of road games at Chicago, Los Angeles, and Carolina tests the team’s mettle. If Shough delivers 3,000 yards and 18 TDs, he could stabilize the role; otherwise, the Saints may target a 2026 draft QB like Garrett Nussmeier or Cade Klubnik. A 6-11 season seems likely, but Moore’s play-calling could spark a surprise.
Carolina Panthers: Was Bryce Young’s Late-Season Surge Fool’s Gold or True Growth?
The Carolina Panthers’ 2025 hopes hinge on whether Bryce Young’s 2024 late-season surge was genuine growth or a mirage. After a Week 2 benching, Young returned post-Andy Dalton’s thumb injury, posting a 15:6 TD-to-INT ratio and 223 rushing yards in his final 10 games (4-6 record). His 100+ passer ratings in three straight games, including wins over Arizona and Atlanta, showed promise. The question is whether Young, the 2023 No. 1 pick, can build on this under Dave Canales to make Carolina a contender.
The Panthers bolstered Young’s arsenal with first-round WR Tetairoa McMillan and running back Rico Dowdle (1,000 yards in 2024 with Dallas). A top-five offensive line, led by Robert Hunt, protects Young, who faces a winnable schedule with prime-time games like Week 12 at San Francisco. Defensively, additions like Tershawn Wharton and Tre’von Moehrig aim to improve a unit that allowed 31.4 points per game in 2024, the third worst in 20 years.
Yet, Young’s 6.69 adjusted net yards per attempt and a 48-14 loss to Tampa Bay in 2024 raise concerns. His late surge came against weaker defenses (Arizona, Atlanta), and close losses to Kansas City and Philadelphia suggest consistency issues. If Young hits 3,500 yards and 20 TDs, leveraging McMillan and Chuba Hubbard, Carolina could push for eight wins. If he regresses, the Panthers risk another 5-12 season, delaying their rebuilding.
Outlook: A Division Up for Grabs
The NFC South’s 2025 race is wide open. Tampa Bay’s offensive firepower and experience make them favorites, but Mayfield must break through playoff barriers. Atlanta’s success depends on Penix’s leap, while the Saints seek their next franchise-changing QB. Carolina’s hopes rest on Young’s growth, with a strong offense but a porous defense. With no team projected above 10 wins, the division remains a battle of potential versus pitfalls, where answering these questions could crown a new champion or keep Tampa on top.
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