The Memphis Tigers are poised for a remarkable finish to their 2024-2025 season, entering the AAC slate as heavy favorites to dominate the remaining 16 games of the regular season. Fresh off a hard-fought 68-64 victory over North Texas, the Tigers now sit at 12-3 overall and 2-0 in conference play. With KenPom projections showing Memphis as double-digit favorites in at least 14 of their final 16 games, the Tigers have a golden opportunity to solidify their standing as the AAC’s flagship program and secure a top-tier seed in the NCAA Tournament.
KenPom’s Projections and What They Mean
KenPom’s analytics have Memphis winning most of their remaining games by significant margins, projecting at least 14 double-digit victories. If the Tigers meet these expectations and sweep the conference slate, they could finish the regular season with a staggering 28-3 record. Add a potential AAC Tournament title to that total, and Memphis could enter March Madness with 31 or more wins—a résumé that would make them a formidable contender for a high seed.
However, head coach Penny Hardaway remains grounded, emphasizing the challenges ahead. “Those teams that played those games are not going to be the teams that we’re going to face – that’s what makes it more dangerous,” Hardaway recently remarked. His caution stems from Memphis’ history as the team every AAC opponent circles on their calendar. For these teams, beating Memphis is akin to a Super Bowl victory, and the Tigers must be prepared to face everyone’s best effort.
Learning From the Past
Last season serves as a stark reminder of the pitfalls Memphis must avoid. The Tigers entered AAC play with a stellar 15-2 record but suffered a stunning collapse after blowing a 20-point lead to South Florida in the infamous “snow game.” Despite their promising start, that loss began a downward spiral, leading to multiple costly defeats and ultimately missing the NCAA Tournament.
Hardaway knows the stakes and is determined to keep his team focused. “We have to uphold our end of the deal,” he said, reiterating the importance of treating every game with urgency. The Tigers cannot afford to overlook opponents or let complacency set in, especially with AAC play’s slim margin for error. A loss to any team in the conference could be classified as a Quad 3 or Quad 4 defeat—categories that could tarnish an otherwise stellar résumé.
Reflections on the North Texas Victory
The Tigers’ recent win over North Texas underscored their challenges in AAC play. Despite being favored, Memphis had to grind out a narrow 68-64 victory against a disciplined and defensively sound Mean Green squad. North Texas head coach Ross Dodge executed a game plan designed to slow Memphis’ tempo and force mistakes, and his team nearly pulled off the upset.
PJ Haggerty’s outstanding 27-point performance was the difference-maker, including a clutch 30-foot three-pointer that sealed the game. However, the Tigers were out-rebounded 30-21, highlighting a recurring issue that future opponents could exploit. Hardaway acknowledged the importance of addressing these weaknesses, especially against teams like Tulane and UAB, which have historically given Memphis trouble in AAC competition.
Memphis’ Status as the Hunted
Memphis has thrived as the hunter for years, chasing top teams and building its program under Hardaway’s leadership. But the roles have reversed this season: Memphis is now the hunted. With victories over UConn, Mississippi State, Clemson, Virginia, and Ole Miss, the Tigers have established themselves as one of the nation’s premier programs. They bring a target on their back whenever they step onto the court.
Teams like Tulane, UAB, and South Florida view their matchups against Memphis as an opportunity to make a statement. Last year, Tulane capitalized on that motivation, handing Memphis a key loss during their late-season slide. Hardaway must ensure his team stays locked in and prepared for every challenge, especially on the road, where AAC opponents will be even more energized.
Related: AAC Dominance or Bust: Why Memphis Must Excel in Conference Play
KenPom’s Predictions and the Road Ahead
KenPom’s projections of double-digit wins for Memphis speak to the Tigers’ talent and depth, but those margins won’t come easily. The AAC may not boast the same level of competition as Memphis’ non-conference slate, but every game presents a unique challenge. North Texas, for instance, bounced back from their loss to Memphis with a dominant 81-59 victory over Rice, showing they remain a formidable foe.
Memphis’s next game against East Carolina on Saturday offers another opportunity to solidify its position atop the AAC standings. While East Carolina may not have the pedigree of other conference opponents, they can pull off upsets, especially against teams that overlook them. Hardaway’s message is clear: consistency and focus will be the keys to navigating the remainder of the schedule.
Avoiding Pitfalls and Staying the Course
To maintain their trajectory, the Tigers must focus on the fundamentals:
- Rebounding: Addressing their struggles on the boards is critical, as evidenced by North Texas’ dominance. Moussa Cissé and the frontcourt must step up to ensure Memphis controls the glass.
- Turnovers: Memphis must minimize giveaways, particularly against teams like Tulane and UAB, which thrive on forcing mistakes.
- Maintaining Intensity: Every game matters and Memphis cannot afford to let up, even against perceived weaker opponents.
As the AAC’s heavy favorites, Memphis is in the driver’s seat, but the path to success is fraught with potential traps. The Tigers’ ability to rise above the pressure and execute at a high level will determine their fate.
Looking Ahead
With 16 conference games remaining, Memphis has an opportunity to leave no doubt about their dominance in the AAC. Winning out would secure a regular-season championship and position the Tigers as dangerous in the NCAA Tournament. Hardaway’s squad has the talent and depth to achieve greatness, but the margin for error is slim.
As the Tigers prepare for their next challenge against East Carolina, one thing is clear: Memphis controls its destiny. If they can stay focused, take care of business, and avoid the pitfalls of complacency, they have a chance to deliver one of the most memorable seasons in program history. The journey continues, and all eyes are on the Tigers to see if they can fulfill their immense potential.
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